138
FXUS63 KABR 191457
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
857 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SD
AND WESTERN MN TODAY. LESS THAN AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO
THE SNOW AND WIND COMBINATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TODAY, COMING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT
20-25 MILES PER HOUR, GUSTING UP TO 35. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH DOWN TO 10-15 MPH SUSTAINED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
- TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S (ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 857 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
ADDITIONAL FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU (MAINLY MARSHALL AND DAY COUNTIES)
AND FAR NORTHEASTERN SD/WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE LOWERED FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE, THE ONGOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS A LINGERING BAND OF SNOW
OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS SHOW FAIRLY LIGHT SNOWFALL RATES, BUT COMBINED WITH
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH, THERE HAVE STILL BEEN SOME
INTERMITTENT MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 2 MILES. THERE IS
SOME SIGNAL IN HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS WRAP-AROUND SNOW
BAND TO STICK AROUND OVER THAT SAME AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
TODAY, CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW. THERE ARE VARYING
DEGREES OF LONGEVITY FOR THIS BAND SHOWN IN THE MODELS, BUT SOME
CARRY IT AS LATE AS THIS EVENING. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING,
THE LIGHT SNOWFALL RATES WILL MOST LIKELY LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN AN INCH. ELSEWHERE, SOME FLURRIES MAY BE
POSSIBLE OUT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION TODAY BUT NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY AS WELL, SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20-25 MPH GUSTING UP TO 35
MPH OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID 20S ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE THIS WEEKEND, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN AND
ALLOWS FOR A WARMER AIRMASS TO TAKE HOLD. BY NEXT WEEK HIGHS LOOK TO
BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY (HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH MID-WEEK). PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LIMITED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A TREND THAT APPEARS TO CONTINUE WITH THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE PATTERN THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
CURRENTLY, MVFR CIGS HAVE SHIFTED AWAY FROM KMBG AND HAVE FORMED
OVER THE KPIR TERMINAL. ALSO, KATY IS LOOSING ITS MVFR CEILING
RIGHT NOW. SO, AT THE MOMENT, KMBG, KABR AND KATY ARE VFR.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE AN INCREASE IN MVFR CIGS, AS THE
DAY WEARS ON, AT PRETTY MUCH ALL FOUR TERMINALS WHILE LOW PRESSURE
IS MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA. WHILE KPIR MAY CLEAR OFF BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, GUIDANCE MAINTAINS VFR/MVFR STRATUS TO PERSIST WELL INTO
TONIGHT AT KMBG, KABR AND KATY. ALSO, NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 10
TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
TODAY, RESULTING IN AREAS OF MAINLY SURFACE LEVEL DRIFTING SNOW.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10
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