468
FXUS63 KABR 191946
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
146 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SD AND
WESTERN MN INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LESS THAN AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY
DUE TO THE SNOW AND WIND COMBINATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S (ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY, WE HAVE DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DECK OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS REMAINS LOCKED
OVER EASTERN SD, MAINLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER, WITH LIGHT FALLING
SNOW OR FLURRIES. WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ARE OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST GUSTING 28-35MPH. FALLING SNOW AND THESE WINDS HAS
RESULTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS OVER NORTHEASTERN SD/WEST CENTRAL MN
FALLING TO AROUND 3 MILES VISIBILITY. THE CLOUDS OVER ARE EAST ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN. THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST, OVER NORTHERN MO HAS
BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE 2
LOWS WILL COME TOGETHER OVER NORTHERN IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS A RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL SD. HOWEVER, EASTERN SD/WESTERN MN WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN LOW THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS IT DEEPENS
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. THE RESULT WILL NOT ONLY BE SLOW TO DIMINISH
WINDS OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES, BUT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING AND OVER MN BY MIDDAY MONDAY. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOW 20S (WITH A FEW LOW 30 DEGREE READINGS SATURDAY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SD) THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN
MONDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMAL READINGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. WE'LL FLIP THE SWITCH BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE ONLY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE MIDWEEK, AT ONLY AROUND A 15% CHANCE AT THIS POINT.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY WITH GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE HIGH CATEGORY, AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE 20-30% RANGE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL SD.
WIND GUSTS OVER THE SAME AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE 25-35MPH, HIGHEST
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH PIR AND MBG. CLOSER TO THE
EXITING SURFACE LOW, AND UNDER A BROADER SWATH OF CLOUDS, EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AT ATY UNTIL 16Z FRIDAY. THE DIFFICULT
FORECAST IS AT ABR, WHICH IS JUST ABOUT TO BE OVERTAKEN BY THE
MVFR DECK WHICH WILL DOMINATE UNTIL AROUND 10Z FRIDAY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...06
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