040
FXUS63 KABR 201150 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
550 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
SD AND WESTERN MN THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHT CHANCES (20%)
PERHAPS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDAY. LESS THAN AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO THE
SNOW AND WIND COMBINATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S (ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD SATURDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
AS OF MIDNIGHT, BOTH RADAR AND OBS CONFIRM LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY
FALLING OVER PORTIONS OF THE JAMES VALLEY AND EASTWARD THROUGH WEST
CENTRAL MN. VISIBILITY IS DOWN TO 4 MILES AT BOTH KABR AND KATY,
WITH WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 15-25 MPH. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR
SHORT TERM IS THIS ONGOING CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THIS AREA AS A
STRATUS DECK REMAINS OVERHEAD BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS OFF TO OUR EAST. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS
SATURATED LOW LEVEL COLUMN (THROUGH ABOUT ~800MB) ALL WITHIN THE DGZ
AND WEAK LIFT THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. SO POPS OF 90% CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z FOR THIS AREA. WITH THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS ONGOING THROUGH THE
MIDDAY, WITH COLLAB, DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES (20%)
THROUGH 18Z AS SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ PER
HRRR/RAP AND EC. BEYOND THIS TIME, WE START TO SEE DRYING AT LOWER
LEVELS LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON HOW LONG
THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES COULD LAST, ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRATUS
CLOUDS REMAINING OVERHEAD OVER FAR NESD/WEST MN PER HREF/NBM.
HREF/NBM QPF IS ABOUT A HUNDREDTH TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WITH NBM SNOW AMOUNTS OF A DUSTING UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS
OF A INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE MORNING/MIDDAY. WITH
WINDS REMAINING BREEZY (GUSTS 15-25MPH) DRIFTING TO PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE WHERE SNOW IS FALLING, ESPECIALLY OVER AND
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE COTEAU THROUGH WEST CENTRAL MN.
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY REMAIN POSSIBLE.
OTHER THEN THE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW FOR THIS AREA, THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE CWA
AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS HIGH EXTENDING SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE CWA. EVEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
CANADA WILL TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST, WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER, THERE LOOKS TO BE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT PASSING OVER THE CWA SATURDAY, NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. FEW OF
THE CAMS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW HERE AND
THERE OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE DRIER AIR AT THE
SURFACE MAY INHIBIT ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES OR VIRGA. NBM POPS
ARE 10% OR LESS AS OF NOW, SO JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH. OUR NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WILL NOT BE UNTIL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL LOW, AND SHORTWAVE ALOFT, TRACKING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND OVER MT AND TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR TIMING AND SPECIFICS IN REGARDS TO TRACK
AND PTYPE, WITH NBM POPS AT 20% OR LESS AND WPC UP TO 30% AT THIS
TIME.
COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW AT 925-850MB. 925MB TEMPS TODAY RANGE FROM
-5 TO -15C AND 825MB TEMPS BETWEEN -10 TO -15C. THIS MAKES HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID TEENS TO THE MID 20S, WARMEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. FOR
SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER TEENS (COTEAU AND EASTWARD)
TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. A BIT COLDER AIR
ALOFT RETREATS SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CWA FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, TEMPS RUN ABOUT 5 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AND 15-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE COTEAU AND
EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. FINALLY WARMER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY BACK INTO THE 30S TO
POTENTIALLY UPPER 50S TO 60 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KABR/KATY TERMINALS AS
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ON AND OFF THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AT THESE 2 TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. KPIR/KMBG TERMINALS WILL HAVE VFR PREVAILING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND
BECOMING NORTHEAST.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...VIPOND
DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...VIPOND
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