496
FXUS63 KABR 201644
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1044 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S (ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD SATURDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW AND AN UPPER LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUE TO PULL
SOME FLURRIES INTO THE REGION TODAY. THE UPPER LOW IS PRETTY SLOW
MOVING AND MAY KEEP SOME FLURRIES OVER WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THIS
EVENING. THOUGH RADAR RETURNS THIS MORNING INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW, THINK THE DRIER AIR AND LACK OF FORCING IS UNDERCUTTING
MOST OF IT WEST OF I-29.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS CWA WILL BE AT THE EDGES OF THE HIGH FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS ALLOWING NORTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY (20 TO 35 MPH) UNDER
THE JET. COTEAU WINDS, WITH 50 KTS AT 700 MB ON SUNDAY, MAY NEED AN
NBM 90TH BOOST IN THE GRIDS TO REFLECT SOME 40 KT GUSTS.
THERE'S A LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS STARTING TUESDAY
REGARDING SYSTEM TRACK AND TIMING AND PRECIP CHANCES. THE ECMWF IS
MUCH WEAKER ON A MIDWEEK TROUGH THAN THE LATEST 12Z GFS, KEEPING THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TO 25 TO 35% POPS. ALL GUIDANCE DOES POINT TO SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KABR/KATY TERMINALS AS
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ON AND OFF THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AT THESE 2 TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. KPIR/KMBG TERMINALS WILL HAVE VFR PREVAILING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND
BECOMING NORTHEAST.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...VIPOND
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