185
FXUS63 KABR 210625
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1225 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TEENS TO AROUND
30 TODAY, WARMEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPS FOR
SUNDAY, RANGING FROM 10 DEGREES TO THE UPPER 20S. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE, A PRETTY QUIET WEEKEND IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION AS THE CWA IS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A
LARGE ELONGATED 1055MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADIAN TERRITORIES. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
THIS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST
WITH THE CWA ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH BY 00Z MONDAY, AS THE
CENTER WILL BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MANITOBA. THROUGH MONDAY THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO ONTARIO WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS
HIGH WELL THROUGH THE CENTRAL MIDWEST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AS A GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS, BETWEEN
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES. ALOFT,
THE REGION WILL BE TO THE EAST OF A RIDGE WITH SOME SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY RIDING DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE AND OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE CAMS DO HINT A
SPOTTY SNOW RETURNS MAINLY TRACKING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OUT OF
NORTHWESTERN SD AND POSSIBLY TRACKING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SD MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, KPIR SOUNDINGS SHOWS A BIT OF MOISTURE
BETWEEN 800-825MB BUT THEN A A VERY DRY LAYER TO THE SURFACE (DUE TO
THE HIGH), SO ANY PRECIP WOULD PROBABLY NOT EVEN MAKE IT TO THE
GROUND. POPS ARE LESS THAN 10% BOTH NBM AND HREF. THIS RIDGE WILL
TRACK A BIT EASTWARD (AND AMPLIFY) BECOMING BROADER WITH THE
NORTHERN EDGE FLATTENING OUT A BIT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TRANSITIONING INTO A TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE REGION MIDWEEK.
WITH THIS HIGH, WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. A 850 NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ORIENTED JET WILL SETUP AS WINDS AT THIS LEVEL WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (25-35KTS) JAMES
VALLEY AND EASTWARD, WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS AT THE SURFACE BREEZY,
WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH, HIGHEST OVER THE COTEAU. THIS JET WILL
SHIFT A BIT EASTWARD SUNDAY WITH SURFACE GUSTS 20-35MPH JAMES VALLEY
AND EASTWARD BY THE AFTERNOON, HIGHEST OVER THE COTEAU. GUSTS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE HIGHER OVER/ALONG THE COTEAU WITH 700MB WINDS OF 40-
50KTS, BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW THE PROB OF GUSTS>40MPH PER NBM IS 0%.
WE ARE STILL WATCHING A POTENTIAL LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OUT OF
CANADA/MT AND TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL QUITE THE SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS ON EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THIS LOW/TROUGH. AS OF NOW, THE MAJORITY OF THE QPF PER VARIOUS
MODELS LOOKS TO STAY ACROSS ND INTO MN WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
BRUSHING FAR NORTHEASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. NBM PROB OF
PRECIP>0.10" IS ABOUT 30-40% OVER NORTHEASTERN SD INTO WEST
CENTRAL MN. LATEST NBM/WPC POPS HAS A 20-35% CHANCE TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. EC METEOGRAMS INDICATE A 20-25%
CHANCE OF PRECIP AT OUR ASOS SITES WITH A MIXED BAG OF EITHER
RAIN, SNOW, OR MIXED PRECIP. SO LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON THE EXACT
OUTCOME FOR NOW AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TEMPS. RIGHT NOW THERE
IS A 5-10% OF AT LEAST MINOR IMPACTS PER WSSI WED/THURS.
TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND HAVE TRENDED COLDER THEN 24 HOURS AGO WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO AROUND 30 AND 10 TO THE UPPER 20S ON
SUNDAY, COLDEST OVER NORTHEASTERN SD. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WILL
WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TUESDAY'S HIGHS RANGING IN THE 30S TO
50S, WHICH IS ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...VIPOND
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