132
FXUS63 KABR 220537 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1137 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY COLDER HIGHS FOR SUNDAY, RANGING FROM
10 DEGREES TO THE UPPER 20S. A WARM UP IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 515 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
WITH TEMPERATURES JUST OFF THE SURFACE WELL WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND LITTLE POCKETS OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND A
TROUGH TO THE EAST, ITS NO SURPRISE WE CONTINUE TO SEE FLURRIES
AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIGRATING ACROSS THE AREA IN THIS REGIME.
SUCH AS IT WAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH THAT FEATURE CONTINUES
TO MIGRATE SOUTH AND WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. STUCK WITH FLURRIES THOUGH WE HAVE GOTTEN A DUSTING HERE.
LOOKING AT 850MB MOISTURE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND NAM/GFS BOTH
DRY OUT THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SO THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST OF THE
LIGHT SNOW - THOUGH MODELS TEND NOT TO BE THAT GREAT AT THESE
SETUPS. NO OTHER CHANGES OF NOTE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO WRAP SOME
CLOUDS BACK INTO NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN TODAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS IN EVEN FURTHER TONIGHT AND MAY HELP REGENERATE SOME
STRATUS/FLURRIES NEAR THE SISSETON HILLS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSIST SUNDAY AS THAT UPPER TROUGH AND NORTHERLY SFC FLOW REINFORCE
THE COLDER AIR. DRIER MID LEVELS WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY AND A 70
KT JET WILL LEAD TO BREEZY WIND GUSTS SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY, RETURN FLOW SETS UP FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST UNDER A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A LITTLE MONDAY WITH
A BIGGER WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSH ON TUESDAY. STUCK WITH THE GRAND
ENSEMBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVE
BACK IN. AN ARCTIC FRONT SLIDES SOUTH LATE TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL A
LOT OF MODEL SPREAD REGARDING PLACEMENT AND TIMING AND RESULTANT P-
TYPE AND AMOUNTS WITH BOTH THE ARCTIC FRONT AND THEN A WARM AIR
ADVECTION BAND OFF A BLACK HILLS/NEBRASKA LOW ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND
THIS MID WEEK LOW, WINDY AND DRY WESTERLIES TAKE HOLD FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.
SO, A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND WEST OF THE U.S.
WEST COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOWNSTREAM OF IT OVER THE U.S. ROCKY MOUNTAINS. FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE
INTO MORE OF A UNIFIED/CONNECTED STEERING PATTERN THAT SHOWCASES A
BROAD (NOT OVERLY AMPLIFIED) UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM COAST
TO COAST. DETERMINISTIC GSM'S AND ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THAT IT COULD TAKE FROM SATURDAY TO TUESDAY MORNING TO MOVE
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO A POSITION EAST OF THE CWA, WHILE NEW
UPPER LEVEL TROF/ENERGY DIGS OUT A NEW WEST COAST LONGWAVE TROF. AT
SOME POINT AFTER 12Z TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, SOME SCRUTINY WILL BE
NEEDED INTERROGATING POTENTIAL CHUNKS OF LOW PRESSURE ENERGY
(POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION) LIFTING OUT OF THIS WESTERN
CONUS LONGWAVE TROF.
SO, BESIDES A SMALL (20-40 PERCENT) CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY,
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS DRY AND WARM. S.A. ENSEMBLE TABLES
FOR BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS SHOW, AT LEAST, 1 STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL 850HPA TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. AND,
25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE RANGES FOR TEMPERATURE ARE RATHER SMALL,
LENDING CONFIDENCE TO THE CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE
FORECAST BEING ADVERTISED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...VIPOND
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