901
FXUS63 KABR 220703
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
103 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY COLDER HIGHS FOR TODAY, RANGING FROM 10 DEGREES TO THE
MID 20S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A STORM SYSTEM MIDWEEK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
AS OF 1AM, A LARGE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH THE CWA ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF A RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN
LINGERING OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA (AND PRODUCED FLURRIES) IS
FINALLY TRACKING EASTWARD WITH OVERALL CLEAR SKIES. MODELS INDICATE
A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF CANADA, AND RIDING SOUTHEAST ON THE
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE CONTINUING SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE
REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. AS THE WAVE EXITS THE REGION WE DO DRY OUT
BETWEEN 500-850MB THROUGH THE MIDDAY, HOWEVER, GFS/RAP STILL HOLDS
ONTO MOISTURE/CLOUDS AT 925MB JAMES VALLEY AND EASTWARD. SO NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON CONTINUING FLURRY MENTION, BUT THEY STILL COULD
BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SD/WESTERN MN THROUGH THE MIDDAY.
OTHERWISE AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ACROSS CANADA AND OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA BY THIS EVENING WITH THE CWA
ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS HIGH, WHICH WILL HELP DRY OUT THE
LOWER LEVELS. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE HIGH WILL TRACK OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO WITH THE CWA ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF ITS RIDGE AS A GRADIENT
SETS UP OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN SD, TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW IN CANADA. SO
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DRY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ENS/GEFS ARE OVERALL COMING TOGETHER ON THIS ELONGATED WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CANADA BORDER/MT MONDAY
EVENING AND TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADA
BORDER TUESDAY, AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY. STILL
A BIT OF A DIFFERENCE ON EXACT PLACEMENT AT THIS TIME AS GEFS IS A
BIT MORE SOUTH OVER MN (AND WEAKER) TUESDAY 12Z WHILE ENS IS
STRONGER AND MORE NORTHWARD. AS THE MAIN LOW TRACKS EAST, A WARM
FRONT WILL ALSO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CWA AS WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN TRACK OVER THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY MORNING WHERE IT STALLS OUT OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING (WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT) BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OUT AS THIS MAIN
LOW WILL THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST AND OVER THE ~GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
AS OF NOW, THE BULK OF OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT/BACK SIDE OF LOW, AND COULD BE A BANDED SETUP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS A HIGH WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH, OVER ND/CANADA
WEDNESDAY MORNING, SINKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT YET IN REGARDS TO EXACT QPF AMOUNTS.
THIS POSSIBLE BANDING IS SHOWN WELL IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS
GFS HAS A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER QPF (0.50"+) EXTENDING FROM
NORTHWESTERN ND THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SD WHILE EC IS SIMILAR IN
REGARDS TO TRACK BUT LESS AMOUNTS (~0.10- 0.15"). NBM PROB OF
QPF>0.10" FOR THE 24 HOURS ENDING 12Z THURSDAY DOES SHOW 30-40
CHANCE IN THE SAME LOCATION OF GFS/EC FROM NORTH CENTRAL SD AND
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SD. PROB OF 0.25" IS 25% OR
LESS, HIGHEST OVER THE COTEAU. NBM PROBABILITY OF SNOW OF 1" IS
20-35% FOR THIS AREA. GRAND ENSEMBLE PLUMES FOR SNOWFALL AT
KABR/KATY SHOW AROUND THE 1-2" RANGE WITH HIGH END AMOUNTS (90TH
PERCENTILE OF 4-5"). EXACT PTYPE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TEMPS
(ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL SD) AS NBM 25-75TH SPREAD IS 10+ DEGREES
OVER THE CWA. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP BEYOND THIS TIME WILL NOT
BE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND WITH POPS OF 20-35% FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG
THE NORTHERN CONUS/CANADIAN BORDER. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS THIS FAR OUT.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD TODAY PER NORTHWEST FLOW AT 850 AND NORTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 TO THE MID 20S, COLDEST
OVER NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEASTERN SD/WESTERN MN WITH LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO (USED NBM/NBM25TH). AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND WINDS
TURN SOUTHERLY, THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING IN THE 30S TO 50S OVER CENTRAL SD. STILL COLDER BEHIND THIS
LOW TO OUR EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S JAMES VALLEY AND
EASTWARD. TUESDAY WE DO SEE TEMPS WARM IN THE 30S TO 50S ACROSS THE
CWA, WARMEST SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...VIPOND
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