771
FXUS63 KABR 222323
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
523 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30 MPH MONDAY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH TUESDAY.
- A STORM SYSTEM MIDWEEK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE RAIN/SNOW LINE AND SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATE TO THE
AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
SCATTERED FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND AS FAR WEST
AS THE I-29 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AS INDICATED ON THE KATY OB. THE
UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FINALLY PULLS OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING
SO IT CAN WREAK HAVOC IN THE NORTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
COMBINED WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW WINDS ON MONDAY, WAA
WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH
OF PIERRE. ACROSS THE EAST, THOUGH, RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER A
SNOW PACK WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO NEAR -10 IN SPOTS AND
ONLY REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MONDAY'S HIGHS. DRY WESTERLIES ALOFT
WILL LEAD TO LOWER RH WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY CAUSING HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY BUT WINDY AS THE
JET INCREASES TO 90 KTS WITH A SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
THERMAL PACKING SHOWS SOME SIGNIFICANT CAA FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FALLING TEMPS DAYTIME
TUESDAY. INCREASED NBM WINDS TO 75TH PERCENTILE, BUT THAT MAY BE
TOO LOW. HAVEN'T TOUCHED NBM HIGHS ON TUESDAY, BUT THEY MAY BE TOO
WARM DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THAT CAA. THOUGH POPS ARE BELOW A
PRECIP MENTION, ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SHOW SHOWERS WITH THAT
ARCTIC FRONT. IT MIGHT END UP BEING A LOW QPF/HIGH POP KIND OF DAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY
EVENING.
ON WEDNESDAY, A LOW TRACKS ACROSS SD/NE WITH A WARM AIR ADVECTION
BAND OF SNOW ENFORCED BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MEDIAN SNOW
ACCUMS REMAIN AROUND AN INCH, BUT THE SET UP IS SUPPORTIVE OF A BAND
OF 3 TO 4 INCHES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HWY 12 AND HWY 212 AS INDICATED
BY NBM90TH QPF AMOUNTS. THE WIND FORECAST IS TRICKIER BECAUSE OF THE
TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT WINTER HEADLINES OF SOME SORT NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS. NORTHERLY WINDS SLACKEN AND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHERLY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...07
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