703
FXUS63 KABR 232319
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
519 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30 MPH TODAY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. THIS LEADS TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER CENTRAL SD TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE AND SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
NOT OVERALL MUCH TO ADJUST. SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATE TO THE
AVIATION DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
FORECASTER THINKING REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THIS WEEK.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
JET DROPS IN WITH A COLD FRONT AT THE SFC. NUDGED HIGHS/LOWS TO NBM
25TH BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVEN WITH THE INITIAL WARMER AIR
STILL PRESENT EARLY FROM TODAY'S SOUTHERLY PUSH AND UPPER RIDGING.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TUESDAY WITH THE CAA. BLENDED IN NBM90TH WINDS FOR TUESDAY, AS WELL.
WHILE A FLURRY OR TWO CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT TUESDAY THE BEST
SHORTWAVE SUPPORT FOR THAT REMAINS NORTH AND EAST WITH THE PRIMARY
SFC LOW.
SHORT-LIVED SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING
INTO MN ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER SD FROM
MOBRIDGE TO HURON. THE CHANCE FOR BANDED SNOW EXISTS WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS. OUTSIDE OF THE BAND, AND
WHAT THE GRAND ENSEMBLE IS SMOOTHING OUT FOR ACCUMULATIONS, SNOW MAY
ONLY AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR LESS. HOWEVER, WHERE THE BAND ENDS UP
COULD BE A NARROW SWATH OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. AS WE MOVE INTO THE SHORT
TERM TIME PERIOD WHEN HI-RES MODELS COME INTO PLAY, DETAILS ABOUT
THIS BAND SHOULD COME MORE INTO FOCUS. ANYWHERE SOUTHWEST OF PIERRE,
THOUGH, SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR LOWER SLRS AND POSSIBLY A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW NO MATTER HOW THE BAND OF ENHANCED PRECIP SETS UP.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER THAN AVERAGE AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
WESTERLIES ON FRIDAY WILL SEE SOME JET ENHANCEMENT AND STRENGTHENING
WITH THE CAA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH SHIFT TO
WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONT.
DURING THIS PROGRESSION, LLWS IS EXPECTED WITH 35-45KTS AT 1-2KFT.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...07
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