478
FXUS63 KABR 100720
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
220 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS
GETTING FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH OR TWO.
- A CLIPPER THURSDAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MAINLY STRONG WINDS,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FOR SPECIFIC
RANGES.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. TOO FAR TO DETAIL
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL, HOWEVER HIGHS/LOWS SUNDAY/MONDAY CURRENTLY
FORECAST ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
BAND OF SNOW MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SD/ND STATE LINE AND
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A MORE TRANSIENT AREA OF SNOW AS A LOW
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH TODAY. OVERALL NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THIS
FEATURE WITH AN NBM MEAN OF 1/2 TO 1.5 INCHES, WHILE THE 75TH
PERCENTILES RUNS UP CLOSER TO 2-3 INCHES. NO HEADLINES AS SUCH.
WEDNESDAY, SEVERAL HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT WHILE
WE'RE UNDER WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS, WITH
WEAK SUBSIDENCE, COLD MID TEMPERATURES RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND INSTABILITY THANKS TO MID MARCH SUNSHINE. NAM SQUEEZES 1-200
J/KG CAPE THROUGH ABOUT ABOUT 6 TO 12KFT, THOUGH THE GFS PROFILES
ARE MORE STABLE OVERALL. WILL KEEP NBM BELOW MENTION POPS BUT MAY
NEED TO ADJUST SKY COVER FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE FUTURE IF IT IS
IN FACT AS UNSTABLE AS THESE PROFILES SUGGEST.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A CLIPPER FOR THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GOOD,
WITH ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING VARIATION IN TRACK/INTENSITY,
FROM THE GFS 990MB LOW OVER FARGO TO THE NAM PUSHING A WEAKER LOW
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST OF SOUTH DAKOTA, TO THE EC WHICH HAS AN EVEN
WEAKER LOW MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE BEFORE
DEEPENING, TO THE CANADIAN WHICH DROPS THE LOW DOWN THROUGH OMAHA.
THIS CREATES A HUGE RANGE IN NBM WINDS, WITH A 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE
SPREAD OF 15 TO 25 MPH. WILL STICK WITH WHAT NBM HAS POPULATED AS
ITS DIFFICULT TO PICK WINNERS AND LOSERS FROM THE DATA PROVIDED. THE
HIGH END/GREATEST IMPACT TO WINDS WOULD BE FROM THE GFS WITH A
BUFKIT MIXED WIND DEPICTION OF DEEP MIXING AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW,
SUPPORTING 60KTS TO THE SURFACE. AGAIN, THAT'S ONE EXTREME, WHILE
THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS WOULD SUPPORT MUCH MUCH LESS INTENSE
WINDS. AS FOR MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE, AGAIN ITS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING. WILL CONTINUE WITH
NBM WHICH IS JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONSIDERATION
IS THE NAM INDICATING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO PUSH
FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW WITH NORTHEAST CWA BUFKIT
PROFILES INDICATING SOME CAPE, STRONG WINDS AND FREEZING LEVELS DOWN
TO AROUND 1KFT. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE FOR SNOW SQUALL
POTENTIAL BUT CONFIDENCE GIVEN MODEL SPREAD IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME
TO START ADVERTISING.
WE WILL BE UNDER ANOTHER WEAK HIGH UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY. THIS ONE IS TAKING ON MORE OF A COLORADO LOW TYPE LOOK BUT
WITH A MORE SHALLOW AND TRANSIENT TRAJECTORY AS THE SHORTWAVE COMES
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 6 INCHES WITH THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM CURRENTLY STANDS AT 30-40% ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE STATE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. THATS A SLIGHT DOWNWARDS TICK FROM
THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE NBM WITH A SHIFT NORTHWARDS IN THE FOCUS
AREA FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
THAT IS ALSO DURING A TIMEPERIOD IN WHICH WE WILL SEE WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURES A STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED GEFS MEAN IS AROUND
-8 TO -16C, WHILE DETERMINISTIC EC/GFS ARE WELL ALIGNED MID DAY
MONDAY AT -12 TO -20C. GIVEN WE'RE STILL TALKING A WEEK AWAY, WILL
STICK WITH NBM WHICH CURRENTLY HAS HIGHS/LOWS SUNDAY/MONDAY RUNNING
ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS AS THE BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM
TERMINALS. COULD BE SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS THOUGH THE DAY AT KATY.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL
BRING A COMBINATION OF MVFR CIGS/VISBY WITH PREDOMINANTLY SNOW.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07
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