708
FXUS63 KABR 110523
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1223 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXPAND ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN AND LINGER INTO TONIGHT.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION BUT A BAND ALONG
HWY 14 AND FAR NORTHEAST SD COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH 3 TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE AROUND THE PRAIRIE COTEAU.
- LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING STRONG WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
SPECIFICS, GUSTS OF 40 TO POTENTIALLY 55 MPH. A HIGH WIND WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL SD THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS.
- A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER
THURSDAY MORNING BECOMING LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.
- ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A 50 TO 70% CHANCE OF MAINLY
SNOW THIS WEEKEND. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE AND
RADAR. SNOW HAS BEEN BATTLING DRY LOW LEVELS WITH MOST MODELS NOW
EXITING THE SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST MORE QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
AS OF 1 PM CDT, WE HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING OVER CENTRAL SD.
THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30 WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
WE'RE MOVING INTO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN THIS WEEK WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW. THE FIRST WILL BE TONIGHT, AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO NORTH
CENTRAL SD AND CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AROUND HWY 14 AND OVER THE PRAIRIE COTEAU OF
NORTHEAST SD. SNOW CHANCES HAVE INCREASED AGAIN, WITH AN INCREASE IN
QPF AMONG HIGH-RES MODELS. THE CHANCE FOR MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
ALONG THIS LINE IS 50 TO 60%, AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES
OF SNOW IN NORTHEAST SD IS 40 TO 60%. WITH THE COMBINATION OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES, FRONTOGENESIS AND SOME INSTABILITY OVER NORTHEAST SD,
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 3 TO 4 INCHES. THE
SECOND CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE THURSDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES
ACROSS ND. MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THIS LOW WILL TRACK, SOME ARE
CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER, OTHERS ARE CLOSER TO THE SD BORDER.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA (GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 12). A SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL BRING
SNOW TO A BROADER PORTION OF THE CWA AND HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
EVEN WITH A SOUTHERLY TRACK ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY LESS
THAN AN INCH. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO SWITCH OVER TO RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WE WARM UP. MOVING ON TO OUR THIRD CHANCE OF SNOW
DURING THE PERIOD, A LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS NE/KS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE EC
ENSEMBLE SHOWS THE LOW THE FARTHEST NORTH, MOSTLY IN CENTRAL NE, AND
THEREFORE HAS THE MOST IMPACT TO OUR AREA. ITS STILL TOO EARLY TO
NAIL DOWN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DROP QUITE
A BIT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SD. WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUST 30 TO 35 MPH, PARTICULARLY OVER
NORTHEAST SD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FALLING SNOW, COULD RESULT IN
ISSUES WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE RELATIVELY
STEADY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THURSDAY, WE GET A
SHOT OF MUCH WARMER AIR (8-10 DEGREES WARMER) WHICH WILL PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S BEFORE WE DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THE
WEEKEND. WINDS THURSDAY ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR. MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME MUCH COLDER (AND DRIER) AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE
LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL SUPPORT MIXING, BUT JUST HOW FAR UP
IS UNCERTAIN. SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MIXING UP TO AT LEAST
750MB AND 60-65 KT WINDS. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION/TRACK
OF THE LOW, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON JUST HOW MUCH WE WILL MIX AND
TIMING OF THAT INCOMING COLDER AIR SO BUMPED UP WINDS A LITTLE BUT
IF THE TREND CONTINUES, WINDS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED AGAIN. A HIGH
WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS FOR CENTRAL SD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND A SYSTEM THIS MORNING, WITH POSSIBLY SOME
FOG ONCE THE HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. LATER TODAY, FOR A FEW HOURS
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...07
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page