310
FXUS63 KABR 112312 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
612 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS COULD POTENTIALLY EXCEED
60-65 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND APPROACH 60 MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST
SD/WEST CENTRAL MN. A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
- MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
SD.
- ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A 50 TO 80% CHANCE FOR
SNOW OR A MIX THIS WEEKEND. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A WEAK DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO TREK THROUGH OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WITH IT AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND BRIEF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHEAST SD/WEST CENTRAL SD. STRATO-CU
HAS ALSO FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF SD WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SFC RIDGING COMES
MORE INTO FOCUS TONIGHT LEADING TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT WHICH IS
ABOUT NORMAL.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AROUND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE MORE FIXED ON A LOW PRESSURE TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN ND FROM THURSDAY MORNING/MIDDAY TO EASTERN
ND/NORTHWEST MN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS/EC REMAIN
SIMILAR IN STRENGTH, TIMING AND TRACK WHILE THE CANADIAN IS SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND SLOWER IN TIMING. THE NAM IS THE FARTHEST NORTH AND EAST
WITH THE TRACK AND CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE EVENTUAL
OUTCOME OF THIS WILL DICTATE WHERE THE STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS SET
UP ALONG WITHE PLACEMENT OF SOME OF THE PRECIP. WARMER AIR WILL
SURGE NORTH INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN INITIAL BOUT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KICK
IN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING
FROM +3C TO +9C TO 0C TO +5C BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY SUBZERO AFTER 00Z FRI. SO, THERE MAY BE A
COUPLE OF SURGES OF STRONG WINDS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE AND REMINISCENT OF A STRONG WIND EVENT IN DECEMBER WITH
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER SHOWING SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 70-80+ KNOTS.
DECIDED IT WOULD BE BEST FOR MESSAGING PURPOSES TO UPGRADE THE HIGH
WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING ACROSS CENTRAL SD OR ISSUE A NEW
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL
STILL EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL SD THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH RH'S FALLING
INTO A 20-35 PERCENT RANGE, WITH PARTICULAR FOCUS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SD WHERE RH'S WILL BE THE LOWEST AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMEST. NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS BUT THE VERY
STRONG WINDS GIVE PAUSE TO THE WHOLE SITUATION. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE FOR NOW.
THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PASS OUT OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.
COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE LEADING TO CHILLY, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. MOST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY BEFORE THE
NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BEGIN PUSHING MOISTURE INTO OUR WESTERN
ZONES AS EARLY AS THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST
NBM ITERATION CONTINUES TO PAINT A BROAD-BRUSHED AREA OF 50-80
PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THERE STILL REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY A SNOW
P-TYPE EVENT. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTIES STILL IN THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW LINE TO SET
UP SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. WHEREVER THIS SETS UP, IF IT COMES TO
FRUITION, WILL DICTATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WHO GETS MORE AND WHO
GETS LESS. SO, MORE TO COME ON THIS SYSTEM AFTER WE GET BEYOND
THURSDAY'S CLIPPER SYSTEM. MUCH COLDER AIR DOES LOOK PROBABLE IN THE
WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. SINGLE DIGIT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND
DAYTIME READINGS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STRONG, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
SDZ007-008-011-019>023.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM CDT /2 PM MDT/ THURSDAY TO 1 AM CDT
/MIDNIGHT MDT/ FRIDAY FOR SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-
033>037-045-048-051.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
SDZ006-018.
MN...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
MNZ039-046.
UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...VIPOND
AVIATION...20
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