618
FXUS63 KABR 121752 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1252 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS WILL MAINLY BE UP IN THE 55 TO 65 MPH
RANGE WITH STRONGER GUSTS RIGHT WHEN THE FRONT COMES THROUGH.
SOME OF OUR MORE WIND PRONE AREAS COULD TOP 75 MPH. A HIGH WIND
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST SD AS WELL AS WESTERN MN.
- MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RAISE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INTO THE
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
- A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL HAS INCREASED TO
30 TO 60% ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
LEAD TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.
- VERY COLD AIR FOLLOWS WITH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SOME 15
TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1104 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, FROM NORTH
CENTRAL SD EAST INTO NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN WITH A
MARGINAL RISK(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE'S A GROWING CONCERN THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
GENERATED TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS AREA OF RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL AUGMENT THE ALREADY SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND
THAT A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL GENERATE. SO,
ADDED IN A MENTION OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO, REFRESHED WIND
DATA WHICH RETAINED WHAT WAS INHERITED OR INCREASED MAGNITUDES A
BIT. GUSTS OF 60-80 MPH STILL LOOK VERY PROBABLE ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR SOME "WRAP-AROUND" PRECIP TO COME THROUGH
OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT AS THE CLIPPER LOW PASSES OFF INTO
NORTHERN MN. IF WE DO GET SOME PRECIP IN THAT AREA, IT WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND COMBINING THAT WITH THE VERY STRONG
WINDS, IT COULD POSE SOME HAZARDOUS WINTRY CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES BETWEEN ABOUT SUNSET AND
MIDNIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS FOR THE REST OF
TODAY APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK. UPDATES HAVE BEEN APPLIED AND THE
NEW FORECAST DETAILS HAVE BEEN SENT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE ALIGNED CLOSER TO THE GFS WHICH HAS HAD
THE MOST CONTINUITY IN REGARDS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT TRACKS
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. GFS
1/2KM WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30KTS AT 15Z TO A POCKET OF
40KTS+ ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY 18Z AND 45KTS+ INTO THE
EASTERN CWA BY 21Z WITH ULTIMATELY A CORE OF 50 TO 60KTS CROSSING
THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THE WINDS ALOFT DROP RAPIDLY THEREAFTER
BY 12Z. GFS ALSO HAS PRESSURE RISES OF 14MB/6 HOURS, AND A BULLSEYE
OF 20MB/6 HOURS IN NORTH DAKOTA WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT.
WE WILL BE WARM ADVECTING THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z HOWEVER, WHICH WILL
TEMPER MIXING THOSE STRONGER WINDS OUT WEST. THE CORE OF THE WARMEST
AIR IS THEN SHUNTED SOUTHWARDS WITH THE COLD FRONT, BUT AGAIN THE
DUAL NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOWS UP, AND COLD ADVECTION ISN'T
THAT STRONG INITIALLY (THROUGH THE 00Z TIMEFRAME) AFTER WHICH A
SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC TYPE AIR COMES IN WHICH WILL HELP ENHANCE THE
WINDS. THAT SAID, THE GFS (WHICH IS MORE MIXY) BUFKIT PROFILES DO
SHOW THE MIXED DOWN TOOL JUMPING INTO THE 60-70KT RANGE, WHICH IS
BACKED UP BY THE RRFS AND THE ARW. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM, THAT WILL AID IN
ENHANCING WINDS AT TIMES, SO SOME 75 MPH GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
CAMS ARE ALSO GENERATING THESE STRONG ENHANCEMENTS. THE HRRR OUTPUT
IS WELL PAST 70MPH IN LOCATIONS BACKING UP THE ABOVE STATEMENT. THE
HREF LIKEWISE HAS SOME AREAS IN NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES WITH A
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 70 MPH.
NOW... ON TO THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM!
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IN THE
PROGRESSION OF A COLORADO LOW THAT MOVES MOSTLY THROUGH KANSAS AND
OFF TOWARDS CHICAGO. THIS A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED SYSTEM IN COMPARISON
THE COLORADO LOWS THAT WOULD TYPICALLY GIVE US A MUCH LONGER
RESIDENCE TIME WITHIN THE TROWAL, BUT THATS NOT TO SAY IT WON'T BE
IMPACTFUL AS WE'RE ALREADY SEEING NBM TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES
OF SNOW. IN FACT, THE 13Z AND 19Z RUNS OF THE NBM HAVE SEEN A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OVER LAST NIGHTS FORECAST. PROBABILITIES TO
EXCEED 6 INCHES IS NOW UP AROUND 50 TO 80 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN ARE A BIT
HIGHER BUT OVERALL A PROGRESSION TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED. GFS BUFKIT
PROFILES DEPICT A FAIRLY DEEP (APPROX 6KFT) DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THAT
MAKES A SLOW PROGRESSION FROM AROUND 500-600MB DOWN TO AROUND 700-
800MB AS PROFILES COOL, AND WHILE ASCENT IS NEVER CONSISTENTLY WITHIN
THAT ZONE, THE LONG RESIDENCE TIME MEANS AMPLE TIME FOR SNOWFALL.
NBM 25TH-75TH RANGE IN SNOWFALL OUTCOMES STILL SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD, ON THE ORDER OF 6 INCHES BETWEEN HIGHER AND LOWER POTENTIAL
FOR SNOWFALL. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG, WITH GFS BUFKIT MIXED
TOOL INDICATING ABOUT 40KTS OF WIND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE, ASIDE FROM THE TIME PERIODS WHERE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS WILL BE MORE PROBABLE AT KATY
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS "WRAP-AROUND"
CLOUD COVER OVERTAKES NORTHEAST SD FROM A DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW
ACROSS NORTHERN MN.
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AT KMBG/KABR/KATY TAF SITES.
SFC WIND SPEEDS WILL EXCEED 35-40 KNOTS AND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 60
KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KPIR/KMBG AND DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EVENING AT KABR/KATY. WINDS WILL NOTICEABLY DIMINISH TOWARD
THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD OR MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
SDZ007-008-011-019>023.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ FRIDAY FOR
SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
SDZ006-018.
MN...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
MNZ039-046.
UPDATE...VIPOND
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...VIPOND
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