651
FXUS63 KABR 150725
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
225 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOWFALL CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
TOTALS OF 1-5 INCHES WEST OF A LINE FROM ABERDEEN TO CLARK AND 3-9
INCHES TO THE EAST, WITH HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNT TO OCCUR ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU.
- SUSTAINED WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH THROUGH THE
MORNING WILL LEAD TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND WHITE OUT/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON.
- VERY COLD AIR FOLLOWS WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO MONDAY SOME 15
TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WIND CHILL VALUES HEADING INTO MONDAY
MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS BELOW TO 20S BELOW ZERO.
- THERE'S A 50-70% CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY, PRIMARILY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. AT THIS TIME,
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
AS OF 07Z, THE STRONGER BAND OF SNOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN SD
WITH SMALLER POCKETS OF SNOW CONTINUING TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN SD. THE STRONGER BAND HAS MOVE FASTER TO THE SOUTH THEN
PREVIOUS MODELS HAVE FORECAST DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW TRAVELING A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS KS INTO MO/IA. DUE TO THIS, ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LESSEN. THERE IS STILL A 60-90%
CHANCE FOR AN ADDITIONAL 5 PLUS INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL FROM MIDNIGHT
TO SUNDAY EVENING IN A LINE FROM SPINK TO ROBERTS COUNTY AND TO THE
SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THIS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TO
ACCUMULATE IS OVER THE PRAIRIE COTEAU AND EAST CENTRAL SD, FROM
UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE COTEAU HELPING TO CREATE
SOME MORE SNOW FOR THAT AREA. SNOW CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THE SNOW SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF NORTHEASTERN SD BY THE
AFTERNOON.
HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST IS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH, CAUSING STRONGER WINDS
TO STRENGTHEN ALOFT. MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD TODAY, AND WILL
HELP TO GET THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS GETTING UP AROUND 35 TO 50 MPH. AS THE WINDS INCREASE,
THE AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO INCREASE CAUSING REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND CONTINUING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THOUGH, WITH THE STRONGER, MORE WIDESPREAD, BAND OF SNOWFALL HAVING
MOVED TO THE SOUTH, THERE WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND LONG DURATION
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN SD AFTER MID MORNING. THERE WILL
STILL BE BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES INTO THE AFTERNOON,
BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS THIS MORNING. THE HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
HIGHER PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DECREASE IN CENTRAL SD
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND IN NORTHEASTERN SD DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ONCE SNOW CHANCES DECREASE DURING THE MID MORNING,
BLOWING SNOW AND ITS IMPACTS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AND THEN
CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS WINDS DECREASE.
THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL HELP TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD MONDAY. WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD, TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE
15-30 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL BE AROUND 0 INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND WILL HAVE WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS TO -20S.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST IS STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY
EAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. A SHORTWAVE RIDING
ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SD TUESDAY, AND
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
THE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION, AS SOME HAVE IT MOVING IN TUESDAY MORNING, OTHERS IN
THE AFTERNOON, AND A FEW MODELS KEEP IT TO THE NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN SD ALL TOGETHER. ADDITIONALLY, WITH WARM AIR MOVING
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS FORECAST TO CHANGE
FROM SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX THEN RAIN THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH TIMING
OF THIS CHANGE IS ALSO DIFFERENT IN THE MODELS. WITH ALL THE
DIFFERENCES, THERE IS STILL LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIPITATION
AND AN EYE WILL HAVE TO BE KEPT ON IT IN UPCOMING MODEL RUNS.
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS EVENT LOOK TO BE LIGHT AT THE MOMENT. THE
RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL AFFECT THE REGION INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SN WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL, ALONG WITH INCREASING AREAS
OF BLSN. VSBY WILL GENERALLY BE IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT, WITH VLIFR AT
TIMES. SN WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR FORECAST TOWARDS THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SDZ007-008-011-020>023.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ007-008-011-
020>023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR SDZ003-004-015.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ005-006-010-
017>019-036-037.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ009-016-
034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR SDZ033-035-045-048-051.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SDZ033-035-045-048-051.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MNZ039-046.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...TMT
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