892
FXUS63 KABR 160114 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
814 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH THROUGH, AT
LEAST, THIS EVENING WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF AREAS OF
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, WHERE VISIBILITY COULD OCCASIONALLY DIP
AS LOW AS ONE HALF MILE, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-29
CORRIDOR.
- VERY COLD AIR, FOR MARCH, WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 15 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND CHILL VALUES HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE TEENS BELOW TO 20S BELOW ZERO.
- THERE'S A 60-85% CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY, PRIMARILY OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AT THIS TIME, LIGHT SNOW
(MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA)
AND LIGHT ICE (MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA) ACCUMULATION ARE FORECAST.
- DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT TAKES TO MELT DOWN THIS NEW SNOW FIELD,
TEMPERATURES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT'S 20 TO 30 (OR
MORE) DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMAL FOR MID-MARCH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 809 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
AS OF 8PM, WINDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG JAMES VALLEY AND
EASTWARD WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40MPH. BLOWING SNOW SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICTED ONGOING LOFTED SNOW ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY AND EASTWARD
WITH WEBCAMS STILL SHOWING DRIFTING AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY AROUND AND NEAR THE SISSETON HILLS. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SISSETON HILLS WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW OFF TO OUR EAST. EAST OF
HERE, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE,
FORECAST REMIANS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS BELOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
AT 2 PM CDT, SKIES ARE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ARE
HOVERING IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
REMAINING FALLING SNOW HAS DEPARTED THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST
ZONES, AND NOW JUST DEALING WITH MOSTLY GROUND LEVEL
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW THAT THE STRONG NORTH WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS 35 TO 50 MPH ARE PERPETUATING.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOWCASE 20 TO 30 MPH NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS POTENTIALLY UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES TONIGHT ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE PRAIRIE COTEAU/I-29 CORRIDOR. AS SUCH THE BLOWING SNOW MODEL,
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM THE TEENS ABOVE TO SINGLE DIGITS
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO, IS HOLDING ON TO AREAS OF DRIFTING/BLOWING
SNOW, SO MAINTAINING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH 1 AM CDT. THE NEXT COUPLE OF SHIFTS CAN MONITOR TRENDS AND
DETERMINE IF A HEADLINE IS NEEDED PAST THAT TIME. ALSO WORTH
MONITORING ARE THE FORECAST WIND CHILL VALUES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. CONTINUING TO SEE WIND CHILL VALUES DROP 2 OR 3
DEGREES WITH EACH FORECAST SHIFT. THERE ARE NOW A FEW PIXELS OF -25F
SHOWING UP IN HAND COUNTY AND A FEW PIXELS OF -30F SHOWING UP IN
DEUEL COUNTY. MARGINAL AT BEST, DESCRIBES THIS ARRANGEMENT, SO NO
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES JUST YET.
EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY, THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS DRY AND BECOMING
INCREASINGLY WARM WITH THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS TAKING CENTER STAGE. NEXT WEEKEND, MODELS PROG A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT COULD COOL THINGS DOWN TO SOMEWHERE CLOSER
TO CLIMATE NORMAL FOR MID-MARCH. AS FOR TUESDAY, ENSEMBLE-POWERED
POPS ARE NOW IN EXCESS OF 80 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW, BASED OFF MODEL SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE P-TYPES
GUIDANCE, IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELIEST P-TYPE IS SNOW AS THIS WAA
BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS/MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON TUESDAY.
THE SECOND LIKELIEST P-TYPE IS FREEZING RAIN, WITH SLEET AND RAIN
TRAILING A RATHER DISTANT 3RD AND 4TH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20
TO 30 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING, MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, WHERE VISIBILITY COULD
OCCASIONALLY DIP AS LOW AS ONE HALF MILE, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-29 CORRIDOR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND STILL REMAIN
BREEZY EAST OF HERE THOUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CIGS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH KATY OCCASIONALLY DIPPING DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR DUE TO BLSN AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 03Z.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
020>023.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ039-046.
UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...MMM
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