341
FXUS63 KABR 160531 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1231 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD AIR, FOR MARCH, WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 15 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND CHILL VALUES HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE TEENS BELOW TO 20S BELOW ZERO.
- THERE'S A 60-85% CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY, PRIMARILY OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AT THIS TIME, LIGHT SNOW
(MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA)
AND LIGHT ICE (MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA) ACCUMULATION ARE FORECAST.
- DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT TAKES TO MELT DOWN THIS NEW SNOW FIELD,
TEMPERATURES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT'S 20 TO 30 (OR
MORE) DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMAL FOR MID-MARCH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
AT 2 PM CDT, SKIES ARE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ARE
HOVERING IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
REMAINING FALLING SNOW HAS DEPARTED THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST
ZONES, AND NOW JUST DEALING WITH MOSTLY GROUND LEVEL
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW THAT THE STRONG NORTH WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS 35 TO 50 MPH ARE PERPETUATING.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOWCASE 20 TO 30 MPH NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS POTENTIALLY UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES TONIGHT ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE PRAIRIE COTEAU/I-29 CORRIDOR. AS SUCH THE BLOWING SNOW MODEL,
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM THE TEENS ABOVE TO SINGLE DIGITS
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO, IS HOLDING ON TO AREAS OF DRIFTING/BLOWING
SNOW, SO MAINTAINING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH 1 AM CDT. THE NEXT COUPLE OF SHIFTS CAN MONITOR TRENDS AND
DETERMINE IF A HEADLINE IS NEEDED PAST THAT TIME. ALSO WORTH
MONITORING ARE THE FORECAST WIND CHILL VALUES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. CONTINUING TO SEE WIND CHILL VALUES DROP 2 OR 3
DEGREES WITH EACH FORECAST SHIFT. THERE ARE NOW A FEW PIXELS OF -25F
SHOWING UP IN HAND COUNTY AND A FEW PIXELS OF -30F SHOWING UP IN
DEUEL COUNTY. MARGINAL AT BEST, DESCRIBES THIS ARRANGEMENT, SO NO
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES JUST YET.
EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY, THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS DRY AND BECOMING
INCREASINGLY WARM WITH THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS TAKING CENTER STAGE. NEXT WEEKEND, MODELS PROG A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT COULD COOL THINGS DOWN TO SOMEWHERE CLOSER
TO CLIMATE NORMAL FOR MID-MARCH. AS FOR TUESDAY, ENSEMBLE-POWERED
POPS ARE NOW IN EXCESS OF 80 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW, BASED OFF MODEL SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE P-TYPES
GUIDANCE, IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELIEST P-TYPE IS SNOW AS THIS WAA
BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS/MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON TUESDAY.
THE SECOND LIKELIEST P-TYPE IS FREEZING RAIN, WITH SLEET AND RAIN
TRAILING A RATHER DISTANT 3RD AND 4TH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE A FEW POCKETS OF CLOUDS AROUND 3000FT ACROSS CENTRAL SD THAT
MAY BRIEFLY MOVE OVER KPIR/KMBG INTO THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY
MORNING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SDZ007-008-011-020>023.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MNZ039-046.
UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...TMT
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