459
FXUS63 KABR 171745 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1245 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LIGHT DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE 60S AND 70S, COULD BE COLDER IF SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 830 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS JUST ABOUT AS GOOD AS IT GETS, IN TERMS OF
COVERING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TO CONVERT TO SLEET OR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN THROUGHOUT AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING AS THE WHOLE BAND OF PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY
PROPAGATES EASTWARD TODAY. TRANSIENT AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL, SO HANDLING "WINTRY MIX" WITH SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS, IN ADDITION TO THE DSS MESSAGING ALREADY IN
PLACE, SHOULD SUFFICE THIS MORNING. ALSO LEANING ON POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING TODAY AND MELT ANY
POCKETS OF LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION THAT HAPPENS THROUGHOUT AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION, WHERE THE MAJORITY OF
WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A LINE OF PRECIPITATION.
THE PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO START AS SNOW, AND THEN AS WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT START TO WARM THE ATMOSPHERE, THE SNOW WILL MELT
INTO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/ICE PELLETS AND THEN POTENTIALLY RAIN
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
EXIT NORTHEASTERN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WARM AIR MOVING IN OVER CENTRAL SD DURING
THE MORNING CAUSING HIGHER CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS
IN THE MORNING BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVE EAST. THE ENSEMBLES
HAVE A 20-50% CHANCE FOR 0.01 INCH OF FREEZING RAIN TO ACCUMULATE
OVER CENTRAL SD AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD, WITH A LIGHT GLAZE POSSIBLE
FOR MOST OF THESE AREAS. AREAS AROUND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
EAST HAVE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT FOR LONGER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR LONGER TIMES WHERE SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY BE
FALLING. EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING TO A
HALF INCH OF SNOW UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OVER NORTHEASTERN SD.
THERE IS A 40-80% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN AN INCH OVER AND EAST OF
THE JAMES RIVER, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PRAIRIE COTEAU. SOME MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SLEET INSTEAD OF SNOW OCCURRING EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER FOR A BIT DUE TO THE MOISTURE IN THE SOUNDINGS BELOW THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, WHICH IS NEEDED FOR SNOW DEVELOPMENT. IF THIS
IS THE CASE, THERE COULD BE LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION OR FREEZING RAIN
IN SOME AREAS AND MORE ICE PELLETS/SLEET. IF THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN
FASTER OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD, THEN THERE COULD BE MORE
FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION AND LESS SNOW/SLEET. ROADS AND SURFACES
COULD BE A BIT SLICK THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
ICE AND SNOW. THOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW FAST TEMPERATURES WARM AT THE
SURFACE DURING THE DAY, THE ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS
WEST OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU COULD MELT AWAY BEFORE THE AFTERNOON
COMMUTE. TO ADD ANOTHER THREAT TO WATCH OUT FOR, THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER WINDS FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT COULD CAUSE GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON TO GET UP TO 30-35 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND PRAIRIE COTEAU. IF SNOW IS STILL FALLING AS THESE WINDS
ARE OCCURRING, THEN THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW AND A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DURING THE MID MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST SLOWLY TRIES TO MOVE OVER SD DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THIS RIDGE IS TRYING TO
MOVE OVER, TEMPERATURES WARM AT THE SURFACE. THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND
SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 15-25 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL, WITH
SOME OF THOSE DAYS FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD WARM LOW
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THESE DAYS COULD GET UP INTO
THE 60S TO 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO 40S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE FORECAST TO STAY OUT OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SUPPRESSING THE
RIDGE ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND HELPS A SURFACE LOW MOVE OUT OF
ALBERTA. THIS LOW COULD THEN BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
MODELS VARY THE CHANCES, TIMING, TRACK, AND LOCATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION DUE TO IT BEING 5 DAYS OUT, LEADING TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE CHANCES THAT PRECIPITATION OCCURS IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN SD THIS WEEKEND. AN EYE WILL NEED TO BE KEPT ON THE
MODELS AS THE WEEKEND GETS CLOSER TO SEE IF THEY COME TO MORE OF AN
AGREEMENT ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
CIGS AT KPIR/KMBG ARE OR WILL SOON BE VFR, REMAINING SO THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD. KABR AND KATY ARE IN MVFR (CLOUDS) AND
MVFR/IFR (VISBYS) CONDITIONS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW, ALTHOUGH
THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING AT KABR RIGHT ABOUT THE TIME THE TAF
VALID PERIOD BEGINS. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KATY
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO ON THE VERY FRONT END OF THE VALID PERIOD. THE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KABR/KATY (15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS) WILL CREATE DRIFTING AND PERIODIC BLOWING SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, KABR/KATY SHOULD BE GETTING BACK INTO VFR
CONDITIONS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS)
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING, PERSISTING THROUGH
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD, SO CONTINUED TO MENTION THIS
IN THE TAFS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...10
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