957
FXUS63 KABR 180547 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1247 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
60S, 70S, AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 80S (CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA). ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
LIGHT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SD AND
WEST CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS EVENING, AND WILL COME TO AN END BY
03Z. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY, RANGING FROM
THE 50S WEST OF THE MO RIVER TO THE 20S NEAR AND EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S
OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
AT 1 PM CDT, SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SURFACE WARM
FRONT (OVER WEST RIVER COUNTIES) IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
CWA. A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH THE TEENS AND 20S EAST OF THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH READINGS WARMING INTO THE 30S AND 40S
THROUGHOUT AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES/CLUSTERS ANALYSIS ARE ALL IN SYNC DEFINING THE REST
OF THIS WEEK AS A DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM FORECAST PERIOD. THEY
ALL PURPORT THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROPAGATING A BIT
EAST, ALLOWING THE HEAT DOME UNDERNEATH IT TO SHIFT/BLEED OVER INTO
THIS CWA. THE WESTERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE FULLY TRANSITIONED (SNOW
MELTED) TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WITH ENSEMBLE 25TH-75TH
PERCENTILE TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 80S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY
FOR THE EASTERN FORECAST ZONES (TAKING A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY'S
HEATING ENERGY TO MELT SNOW). THEN, THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OVER THE
EASTERN CWA LOOK SIMILAR IN THE 25TH-75TH PERCENTILES FOR WARMTH
(60S AND 70S APPEARING TO BE RATHER ACHIEVABLE). EITHER SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT (TIMING DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS), A SURFACE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA AS ENERGY RIDING
INTO/THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO KNOCK IT DOWN DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THIS SYSTEM AND/OR IT'S COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL DOWN TO READINGS CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F AT KPIR TO MID
40S AT K8D3) SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE 8-14 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS HALFWAY RIGHT, THINGS SHOULD BE TRENDING BACK
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KABR/KATY TERMINALS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 09Z WED.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE DAYTIME HOURS AND INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KATY THIS EVENING AFTER ABOUT 02Z THU.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...VIPOND
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...VIPOND
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