087
FXUS63 KABR 180631
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
131 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
60S, 70S, AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 80S (CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA).
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST IS SLOWLY MOVING ITS WAY TOWARDS SD
AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS HELPS
TO MOVE WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 15-30 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER, IN AREAS THAT HAVE STILL HAVE SNOW ON THE
GROUND, MAINLY AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TODAY AND EAST OF
THE JAMES RIVER THURSDAY, WILL HAVE COOLER TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE
SNOW MELTS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO 50S IN THESE AREAS WITH
SNOW, AND IN THE 60S TO 70S WHERE THE SNOW HAS MELTED. THE MELTING
SNOW OVER NORTHEASTERN SD, AS WELL AS SOME LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT,
COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS FOG COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOWER VISIBILITIES INTO THE
MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THE RIDGE IS MOVING OVER SD, PRECIPITATION CHANCES STAY OUT OF
THE STATE AS THE PRECIPITATION RIDES THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE INTO MN.
THIS LEADS TO SOME LINES OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING TO THE EAST,
WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY STAY OUT OF NORTHEASTERN SD AND OUR WEST
CENTRAL MN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, IF THE TRACK OF THE PRECIPITATION ENDS
UP BEING SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE WEST, FAR NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST
CENTRAL MN COULD SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SPRINKLES OF RAIN
TONIGHT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE DURING
THE WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE SUPPRESSED, SOME MODELS SHOW A LOW
MOVING OUT OF ALBERTA AND EAST THROUGH CANADA. A COLD FRONT ATTACHED
TO THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AND WILL LEAD TO THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER
THE AREA. MODELS VARY THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, IF THERE
WILL BE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY, AND WHERE THE TRACK OF THE
FRONT AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE. THIS LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
THE CHANCE WE GET ANYTHING. ONE THING THE MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THAT
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO AROUND NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KABR/KATY TERMINALS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 09Z WED.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE DAYTIME HOURS AND INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KATY THIS EVENING AFTER ABOUT 02Z THU.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...VIPOND
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