855
FXUS63 KABR 181737
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1237 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, ON THE ORDER OF 15
TO 30 DEGREES.
- WARM AND BREEZY (20-30MPH) CONDITIONS, SO AS WE CONTINUE TO DRY
THE RISK FOR FIRES INCREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
IN THE NEAR TERM, WITH SNOW RAPIDLY MELTING, SHOOTING DEWPOINTS INTO
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S BY LUNCHTIME, OVERNIGHT FOG SEEMS LIKE IT
WOULD BE A SLAM DUNK. WE WILL STILL HAVE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WHICH IS NOT A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR FOG USUALLY, HOWEVER SUCH
HIGH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN PLACE AND STILL MORE MOISTURE (SNOW) ON
THE GROUND EVIDENT VIA SATELLITE, HARD TO REASON AGAINST IT. CAMS
ARE ALSO ALMOST UNIVERSALLY IN SUPPORT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND FIRE DANGER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
DOMINATED BY THE UPPER HIGH/HEAT RIDGE OUT WEST, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, UNTIL AROUND SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME AT WHICH POINT
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST THE RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR A MORE ZONAL, WESTERLY FLOW REGIME TO SET UP BRIEFLY. EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS FLOW IS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE. ONCE THIS FEATURE
PASSES, MODELS DIVERGE ON WHETHER THE RIDGE OUT WEST RE-DEVELOPS OR
IS MERELY TRANSITORY WITH ANOTHER WAVE COMING INTO THE WEST COAST
FOR MID-WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WITHIN THE
BOUNDS OF +4 TO +6C ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA TO LOW TEENS ALONG THE
MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A BRIEF JUMP IN
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA
INTO THE WESTERN LAKES REGION. THUS A SUBTLE SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND VERY WEAK COLD ADVECTION, WHICH WILL
KNOCK 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT 3C FROM A PEAK OF ABOUT +12C TO
+18C FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA. THATS FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SURGE IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, UP TO +15 TO
+18C (2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO) BY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH A
LATE DAY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SHIFT THE WARM AIR ALOFT
SOUTHWARDS.
SO, IN SUMMARY, ITS A STEADY WARMUP STARTING TODAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE EAST/WESTERN MINNESOTA,
TO UP AROUND 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OUT WEST THURSDAY. THEN MORE
BROADLY 20 TO 30 ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE WE COOL IT
BACK TO NORMAL FOR SUNDAY. AFTER THAT IT APPEARS THE PATTERN IS
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF EARLY SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES AS OPPOSED TO THIS
JUMP STRAIGHT INTO SUMMER. IT SHOULD BE IMPORTANT TO NOTE THERE IS
AN NBM BIAS WITH HIGHS RUNNING CLOSER TO THE 10 TO 25TH PERCENTILES
IN GENERAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS. OVERNIGHT, POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR FOG/IFR STRATUS AT THE KABR/KATY TERMINALS WHICH WILL THEN
TAKE ABOUT TILL MID-MORNING THURSDAY TO DISSIPATE.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07
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