670
FXUS63 KABR 191757
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1257 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE UP IN THE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE/WESTERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY MORNING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY TOP 25 TO 35 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY FOR SUNDAY.
- EXPECT INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER CENTRAL SD THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON GUSTING 20-30 MPH. A WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY SATURDAY MAY ALSO COMPLICATE ANY FIRE
SUPPRESSION ACTIVITIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
JUST A QUICK REFLECTION ON THE NBM HANDLING OF TEMPERATURES
YESTERDAY AND HOW MIGHT IT LOOK GOING FORWARD, THE NBM WAS STILL 3
TO 5 DEGREES TOO COOL IN CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL SD AND AS MUCH AS 8
DEGREES TOO COOL IN THE NORTHEAST. I'M GOING TO CHALK THAT UP TO AN
INFLUENCE OF SNOW COVER WHICH DOES'T APPEAR HAVE QUITE THE SIGNAL IN
THE CURRENT RUN WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THE
NORTHEAST MOVING FORWARDS.
A LITTLE LESS BIAS IN NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY
SHOWING UP IN COMPARISON TO 24 HOURS AGO, BUT WE ARE STILL SEEING
ABOUT A 2-5 DEGREE COOL BIAS IN COMPARISON TO THE NBM 50TH
PERCENTILE FOR TODAY AND CLOSER TO 2-3 DEGREES IN GENERAL FOR
TOMORROW. FOR SATURDAY, WITH A LOW DEVELOPING OVERHEAD AND FRONTAL
PASSAGE AIDING IN MIXING, PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC AND MEAN NBM
OUTPUT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AS FOR DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY. SO FAR TODAY IS ON TRACK WITH SOME 40+
DEGREE DEWPOINTS LINGERING, AND WHILE A LITTLE DRIER OUT WEST
THEY REMAIN WELL WITHIN THE REALM NBM/CAM OUTPUT. THUS, NOT MAKING
ANY WHOLESALE ADJUSTMENTS TO DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITY. SAME
GOES FOR WINDS, THOUGH COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAYS
SYSTEM MAY ADD A BIT OF GUSTINESS.
FIRE WEATHER REMAINS THE CHIEF CONCERN GIVEN THE ABNORMAL WARMTH AND
DRYING FUELS. SO FAR, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE MARGINAL FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS IF AT ALL. SITUATION IS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED WITH THE
SYSTEM PASSAGE SATURDAY, HOWEVER SINCE THAT IS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING IT WILL ONLY BE AN ISSUE IF ANY FIRES ARE ONGOING.
NBM SUNDAY TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSER TO CLIMO, HOWEVER GOING INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH AN UPPER PATTERN THAT FEATURES A PAIR OF WEAK WAVES
THROUGH MID WEEK, WE WILL SEE BRIEF SURGES OF MILDER AIR BUT NOTHING
ON THE SCALE OF WHAT IS GOING ON CURRENTLY. STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE FEATURES AND HOW THEY IMPACT TEMPERATURES,
WITH SPREAD IN THE NBM 25TH-75TH RANGES 10 DEGREES FOR HIGHS TUESDAY
AND 20 DEGREES FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS. FOG FRIDAY MORNING ISN'T
EXPECTED BUT CANT BE RULED OUT.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07
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