243
FXUS63 KABR 200530 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1230 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG, WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND 3 MILES, IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE 25 TO 35
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY
FOR SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS 20-25 MPH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WATCH FOR WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND
INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEST OF THE MO RIVER. PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CORSON AND DEWEY COUNTIES OF NORTH CENTRAL SD
ARE STILL EXPERIENCING GUSTS OF 25-35MPH. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OCCURRED TODAY AT
MOBRIDGE, PIERRE, AND ABERDEEN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
JUST A QUICK REFLECTION ON THE NBM HANDLING OF TEMPERATURES
YESTERDAY AND HOW MIGHT IT LOOK GOING FORWARD, THE NBM WAS STILL 3
TO 5 DEGREES TOO COOL IN CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL SD AND AS MUCH AS 8
DEGREES TOO COOL IN THE NORTHEAST. I'M GOING TO CHALK THAT UP TO AN
INFLUENCE OF SNOW COVER WHICH DOES'T APPEAR HAVE QUITE THE SIGNAL IN
THE CURRENT RUN WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THE
NORTHEAST MOVING FORWARDS.
A LITTLE LESS BIAS IN NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY
SHOWING UP IN COMPARISON TO 24 HOURS AGO, BUT WE ARE STILL SEEING
ABOUT A 2-5 DEGREE COOL BIAS IN COMPARISON TO THE NBM 50TH
PERCENTILE FOR TODAY AND CLOSER TO 2-3 DEGREES IN GENERAL FOR
TOMORROW. FOR SATURDAY, WITH A LOW DEVELOPING OVERHEAD AND FRONTAL
PASSAGE AIDING IN MIXING, PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC AND MEAN NBM
OUTPUT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AS FOR DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY. SO FAR TODAY IS ON TRACK WITH SOME 40+
DEGREE DEWPOINTS LINGERING, AND WHILE A LITTLE DRIER OUT WEST
THEY REMAIN WELL WITHIN THE REALM NBM/CAM OUTPUT. THUS, NOT MAKING
ANY WHOLESALE ADJUSTMENTS TO DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITY. SAME
GOES FOR WINDS, THOUGH COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAYS
SYSTEM MAY ADD A BIT OF GUSTINESS.
FIRE WEATHER REMAINS THE CHIEF CONCERN GIVEN THE ABNORMAL WARMTH AND
DRYING FUELS. SO FAR, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE MARGINAL FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS IF AT ALL. SITUATION IS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED WITH THE
SYSTEM PASSAGE SATURDAY, HOWEVER SINCE THAT IS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING IT WILL ONLY BE AN ISSUE IF ANY FIRES ARE ONGOING.
NBM SUNDAY TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSER TO CLIMO, HOWEVER GOING INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH AN UPPER PATTERN THAT FEATURES A PAIR OF WEAK WAVES
THROUGH MID WEEK, WE WILL SEE BRIEF SURGES OF MILDER AIR BUT NOTHING
ON THE SCALE OF WHAT IS GOING ON CURRENTLY. STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE FEATURES AND HOW THEY IMPACT TEMPERATURES,
WITH SPREAD IN THE NBM 25TH-75TH RANGES 10 DEGREES FOR HIGHS TUESDAY
AND 20 DEGREES FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF FOG POTENTIAL EARLY IN
THE MORNING MATERIALIZES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE FOG
POTENTIAL BOTTLED UP MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THIS REGION, SO
PULLED THE FOG MENTION OUT OF THE KATY TAF FOR NOW. WILL RE-
INTRODUCE A TEMPO GROUP FOR FOG, THOUGH, IF NEEDED.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...10
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