459
FXUS63 KABR 201129 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
629 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG, WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND 3 MILES, MAY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE 25 TO 35
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FROM
SUNDAY ONWARD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S THROUGH THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS 15-25 MPH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY NEARING 20%. WATCH FOR WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF
A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING,
MAINLY OVER AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. STRONG RH RECOVERY IN
ADDITION TO THE RECENT SNOWMELT SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA PRIMED FOR
RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. THE WIND PROVIDES A BIT OF
A CAVEAT HOWEVER, UP TO 10-15 MILES PER HOUR OUT OF THE SOUTH. IT
SEEMS TO BE A SETUP IN WHICH FOG MAY DEVELOP WHERE AND/OR WHEN
WINDS ARE LIGHT, BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO PINPOINT THE
SPECIFICS ANY FURTHER THAN THAT.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE THE ABNORMAL WARMTH
AND ASSOCIATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. COMPARED TO THURSDAY, LOOKING
AT A BIT OF AN 850MB TEMPERATURE DECREASE (ROUGHLY A 2-4 DEGREE
CELSIUS DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE BOARD) THIS AFTERNOON, SO THAT WILL BE
REFLECTED WITH A SLIGHT DIP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. STILL
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA (UPPER
60S OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA),
WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN THREATEN RECORD HIGHS. SATURDAY'S HIGHS WILL
BE A BIT WARMER, RANGING FROM THE 70S OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WESTERN MINNESOTA TO 80S OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ONCE AGAIN
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE THREATENED, AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ON RECORDS
BEING BROKEN ON SATURDAY OVER FRIDAY (THOUGH BOTH DAYS REACHING
RECORDS IS WELL WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY).
WITH THE ABNORMAL WARMTH COMES THE CONCERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR FRIDAY, BOTH THE WIND AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE MARGIN OF THE THRESHOLD FOR RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA (GUSTS OF 25 MPH AND 20% HUMIDITY RESPECTIVELY), BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT. ENSEMBLE JOINT PROBABILITIES PUT
THE PEAK CHANCES OF REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AT
ROUGHLY 10-20% OVER PORTIONS OF DEWEY AND CORSON COUNTY. WINDS
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF RED FLAG CRITERIA IN THE
AFTERNOON (GUSTING 15-20 MPH). AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL STILL DROP
BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF JONES AND LYMAN COUNTIES, WHICH
COULD STILL LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SATURDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT IS SET TO PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA, INCREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT (GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH) AND VEERING
THEM TO THE NORTH. WHILE THE BROAD PATTERN OF A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOVING FORWARD, TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL COOL DOWN TO BECOME NEAR-NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE
MID-40S) TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AN EARLY LOOK AT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. THE
LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW THAT AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER HAVE A 50-70% CHANCE (DECREASING MOVING
FURTHER SOUTH) OF SEEING TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. ALL THAT
TO SAY FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS A PRECIP TYPE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME. QPF EXPECTATIONS AT THIS TIME ARE JUST
A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS, WHICH COUPLED WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD
IMPACTS FROM ICE ACCUMULATION APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. STILL,
ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR TRAVEL CONCERNS SUNDAY
MORNING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF FOG MATERIALIZES WITHIN
THE NEXT 2 HOURS, AND MAINLY OVER/NEAR THE KABR/KATY TERMINALS.
IF IT LOOKS LIKE FOG IS DEVELOPING AT/NEAR EITHER OF THESE
TERMINALS, WILL BRING FOG MENTION BACK. BUT, THIS IS LOOKING LESS
AND LESS PROBABLE.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10
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