467
FXUS63 KABR 211134
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
634 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO 80S. EXPECT MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY, WITH GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON UP TO 15 MPH IN THAT AREA.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWEST IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AT BELOW
20%, WITH 20 TO 30% ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
- A FRONT COMING THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT WINDS TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH. ANY ONGOING
FIRES WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE WIND SHIFT AND RAPID INCREASE IN
WIND SPEED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
WARM AND DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY, AND 850MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TEENS OVER THE AREA ARE WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S (INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA) TODAY. THESE HIGHS WILL THREATEN DAILY
RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TODAY. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE
PIERRE CLIMATE SITE, AT WHICH THE FORECAST HIGH OF 86 DEGREES IS
JUST TWO DEGREES AWAY FROM THE ALL TIME MARCH HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDED THERE (88 IN 2012).
THE ABNORMAL WARMTH WILL HELP TO CREATE DRY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN PARTS OF
THAT AREA, WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE
SAVING GRACE THIS AFTERNOON IS THAT WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT, 5-10
MPH GUSTING UP TO 15 MPH AT THE TIME OF THE LOWEST HUMIDITIES. THIS
KEEPS THE AREA OUT OF RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER REACHES VERY HIGH FOR JONES AND
LYMAN COUNTIES REGARDLESS. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING, INCREASING WIND SPEEDS (15-25 MPH
GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH) AND VEERING WIND DIRECTION TO THE NORTH.
SHOULD THIS WIND INCREASE COME EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED AND COINCIDE
WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES, IT WOULD INCREASE THE LEVEL OF CONCERN EVEN
FURTHER.
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATIVE OF MAINLY RAIN, ALTHOUGH FREEZING
RAIN CAN'T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.
ANY PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN LOOK TO BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED. THE
LATEST NBM GUIDANCE GIVES A 50-70% CHANCE FOR LOWS BELOW FREEZING,
BUT THOSE CHANCES ONLY EXIST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. PRECIP TIMING LOOKS TO BE MAINLY PRIOR TO ANY DIPS BELOW
FREEZING, BUT ANYTHING LINGERING IN THE EARLY MORNING MAY BE SUBJECT
TO A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN. IN TERMS OF QPF, STILL
EXPECTING JUST A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS AT THE MOST. ENSEMBLE MEANS
(WHICH ARE LIKELY BIASED UPWARD BY THE HIGHER END VALUES ANYWAY)
CURRENTLY SIT AT LESS THAN 0.05" ACROSS THE BOARD. ALL THAT TO SAY,
ONLY MINOR IMPACTS (PERHAPS SOME SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADS AT WORST)
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, THE BROAD PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY ZONAL TO PERHAPS A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL FACILITATE SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR-NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK (HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S
EXPECTED). NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME DEVELOPMENT MID-WEEK DUE
TO THE ARRIVAL OF A JET STREAK ALOFT. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IS STILL
MUCH TOO HIGH AT THIS TIME TO DIVE INTO ANY DETAILS JUST YET.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS WITH WINDS AROUND 35KTS JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE AT ATY, ABR, MBG THROUGH 14/15Z THIS MORNING. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL AT LEAST 02Z
SUNDAY, BEFORE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS TAKE HOLD BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
INCREASED WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH WILL GUST 28-35KTS FOR 3-6 HOURS
BY AROUND 00Z SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING NEAR DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...06
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