846
FXUS63 KABR 212327 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
- A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND REPLACE THOSE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES CLOSER
TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT
WEEK.
- NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30-40 MPH TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. ANY ONGOING FIRES WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE WIND
SHIFT AND RAPID INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
THE COLD FRONT IS HOVERING AROUND THE HWY 12 CORRIDOR AT THE
MOMENT AND WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. NO MAJOR
CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT BROUGHT EXCEPTIONAL AND RECORD BREAKING
WARMTH TO THE REGION THE LAST COUPLE DAYS IS WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS GIVING WAY TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE, QUASI-ZONAL
UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS HEADING INTO THE NEW
WEEK. GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY CONVINCED THAT THIS PATTERN WILL
REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PRONOUNCED
MID LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION WITHIN THIS FLOW UNTIL PERHAPS
LATER IN THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN ANY NOTEWORTHY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAT ANY SAID WAVE WILL PRODUCE FOR OUR AREA.
IN THE MEANTIME, TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON UNDER FAIRLY LIGHT TO MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS.
RH VALUES ACROSS THE MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREAS OF CENTRAL SD
HAVE RANGED AS LOW AS 20-25 PERCENT SO FAR AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON.
WITH PEAK HEATING TIME STILL AHEAD OF US, WE'LL CONTINUE TO LOSE
SOME OF THESE VALUES GOING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND GUSTS
MAY APPROACH A 20-25 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN
BRIEF AND INFREQUENT ENOUGH TO NOT REQUIRE ANY FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES. STILL SOMETHING WE'LL BE MONITORING CLOSELY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY POISED JUST TO OUR NORTH IN ND,
WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY WINDS TAKE HOLD AND INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A COLD AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN KICKS IN. TIMING OF THE CAA LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND CLOSER
TO MID TO LATE EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE SHARP CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION, FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST,
PLUS THE QUICK INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS COULD FAVOR QUICK STARTING
AND SHIFTING FIRES IF ANY WERE TO GET GOING. FORTUNATELY, THE PERIOD
OF THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE BRIEF AS WE SHOULD ALREADY BEGIN TO
EXPERIENCE DIMINISHING WINDS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PASSING SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FROPA, CAA AND SOME PASSING MID LEVEL ENERGY. MOISTURE REMAINS
RATHER LIMITED SO WOULD EXPECT ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIP UP TO 0.05" AT
BEST WHERE THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS BUT MOST LOCALES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -5C IN OUR EAST TO
AROUND 0C ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. THIS WILL PUT OUR TEMPERATURES
BACK TO ABOUT NORMAL IF NOT JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE,
IT WILL FEEL RATHER BRISK, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN DURING THE DAY AND RELAX THE WINDS BY
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY START TO MONDAY MORNING, A LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS AT THE SAME TIME AS SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAVERSES THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME SOME WEAK LIFT. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR HIGH BASED SHOWERS. BEYOND THOSE
MEAGER PRECIP CHANCES, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE
RULE THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER FROM THE EARLY WEEK
COOL-DOWN WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. COOLER
TEMPERATURES THEN ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THAT AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONFIDENCE UPPER WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THAT MAY BRING SOME PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/SHORT-LIVED IFR BEHIND A
COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
THE MORNING AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KATY BY 18Z.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...VIPOND
AVIATION...20
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