763
FXUS63 KABR 220655
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
155 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 35-50 MILES PER HOUR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SIMILARLY, LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNRISE.
- STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH COMBINED WITH
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY OF 30-40 PERCENT WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ON MONDAY. FIRES THAT START MAY SPREAD QUICKLY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR-NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY (WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO 50S TODAY AND THE
50S TO LOW 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
CURRENTLY MONITORING POST-FRONTAL WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS DO SHOW SOME SITES REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT TIMES (45 MILE PER HOUR GUSTS), BUT THESE HIGHER WINDS
APPEAR TO BE TRANSIENT ENOUGH SUCH THAT A HEADLINE IS NOT NECESSARY
THIS MORNING. ALSO SEEING SOME RADAR RETURNS THIS MORNING, BUT
WEBCAMS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION IS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE SURFACE. THE EXPECTATION FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS IS FOR THAT TREND TO CONTINUE, AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL DROP
OFF AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS PUSHING SOUTH AND OUT OF
THE AREA. BY THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 20 MILES
PER HOUR, STILL OUT OF THE NORTH BEFORE SWITCHING TO SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
THE BROAD PATTERN OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE WON'T ALLOW FOR
QUITE AS MUCH WARM AIR TO MOVE INTO THE ARE, AND 850MB TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE NEAR THE MEDIAN TO 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
(ROUGHLY -1C TO +5C). THIS TRANSLATES TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO SEASONAL THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT STILL
EXPECTING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO HELP TO CREATE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY. PEAK AFTERNOON GUSTS
WILL REACH UP TO 30 MILES PER HOUR, WHICH COINCIDES WITH HUMIDITY
AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. HUMIDITY KEEPS THE AREA FROM RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA, BUT IT WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO PUSH THE GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER INDEX TO HIGH TO VERY HIGH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
PRECIP POTENTIALLY RETURNS TUESDAY AS A JET STREAK IT SET TO RIDE
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND CLIP THE ABERDEEN FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP DRY LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE DURING THAT TIME, SO ANY ELEVATED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL
MOST LIKELY AMOUNT TO NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA.
THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT ON MID TO LATE WEEK, AND WITH THE ZONAL
FLOW, THE BACK END OF A JET STREAK WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH INFLUENCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT, BUT CURRENT
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS PLACE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES
TO BECOME NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WHEN THE RIDGE DOES END UP
FLATTENING OUT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED TO MVFR (KMBG/KABR)/IFR (KATY)
RANGE DUE TO LOW CIGS MOVING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BE REACHING THE KPIR TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS POCKETS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN
(OR PERHAPS EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX IF IT CAN REACH THE GROUND). SO,
EITHER VICINITY SHOWER OR TEMPO MENTION IS INCLUDED IN THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THESE 06Z TAFS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
CONSIDER A BRIEF MENTION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTS IN BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE MORNING. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE/DISSIPATE TO VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KATY BY
18Z. KATY IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page