637
FXUS63 KABR 221443 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
943 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MILES PER HOUR WILL LINGER THIS MORNING,
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SIMILARLY, LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.
- ON MONDAY, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH COMBINED
WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY OF 30-40 PERCENT WILL CREATE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FIRES THAT START MAY SPREAD QUICKLY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR-NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY (WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO 50S
TODAY AND THE 50S TO LOW 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
AN AREA OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS HAVE LINGERED A BIT LONGER ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS MORNING. EXTENDED MENTION
OF POPS INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS PRECIP
WAS RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN SD EARLIER, BUT NOW HAS
SINCE SHRUNK OR DRIED UP AS IT'S PROGRESSED EAST-SOUTHEAST AS THE
UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT WANES AND SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
AREA. LOW STRATUS CLOUD COVER LOOKS EXTENSIVE TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST THIS MORNING. DELAYED THE ONSET OF ANY CLEARING OR BREAKING
UP OF THIS OVERCAST SKY UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
CURRENTLY MONITORING POST-FRONTAL WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS DO SHOW SOME SITES REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT TIMES (45 MILE PER HOUR GUSTS), BUT THESE HIGHER WINDS
APPEAR TO BE TRANSIENT ENOUGH SUCH THAT A HEADLINE IS NOT NECESSARY
THIS MORNING. ALSO SEEING SOME RADAR RETURNS THIS MORNING, BUT
WEBCAMS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION IS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE SURFACE. THE EXPECTATION FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS IS FOR THAT TREND TO CONTINUE, AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL DROP
OFF AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS PUSHING SOUTH AND OUT OF
THE AREA. BY THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 20 MILES
PER HOUR, STILL OUT OF THE NORTH BEFORE SWITCHING TO SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
THE BROAD PATTERN OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE WON'T ALLOW FOR
QUITE AS MUCH WARM AIR TO MOVE INTO THE ARE, AND 850MB TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE NEAR THE MEDIAN TO 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
(ROUGHLY -1C TO +5C). THIS TRANSLATES TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO SEASONAL THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT STILL
EXPECTING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO HELP TO CREATE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY. PEAK AFTERNOON GUSTS
WILL REACH UP TO 30 MILES PER HOUR, WHICH COINCIDES WITH HUMIDITY
AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. HUMIDITY KEEPS THE AREA FROM RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA, BUT IT WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO PUSH THE GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER INDEX TO HIGH TO VERY HIGH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
PRECIP POTENTIALLY RETURNS TUESDAY AS A JET STREAK IT SET TO RIDE
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND CLIP THE ABERDEEN FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP DRY LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE DURING THAT TIME, SO ANY ELEVATED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL
MOST LIKELY AMOUNT TO NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA.
THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT ON MID TO LATE WEEK, AND WITH THE ZONAL
FLOW, THE BACK END OF A JET STREAK WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH INFLUENCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT, BUT CURRENT
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS PLACE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES
TO BECOME NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WHEN THE RIDGE DOES END UP
FLATTENING OUT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MVFR (KPIR/KMBG/KABR) TO IFR (KATY) CLOUDS ARE OVER ALL FOUR
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS KPIR/KMBG/KABR RETURNING TO
VFR FLT CAT CONDITIONS BY 18Z TODAY, WITH KATY FOLLOWING SOMETIME
AFTER 18Z TODAY. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS BANDED PRECIPITATION
(MAINLY SNOW) DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING,
MOVING OVER INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE DISSIPATING. RIGHT
NOW, KPIR STANDS TO RECEIVE SOME OF THIS INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING, BEFORE THE WINDOW FOR
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SHIFTS SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA. ADDED SOME
VICINITY SHOWER AND A TEMPO GROUP TO KPIR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
THIS MORNING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...VIPOND
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10
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