020
FXUS63 KABR 061826
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
126 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL GUST OUT OF
THE SOUTH 30 TO 45 MPH.
- THERE IS A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING
MAINLY NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 12.
- WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN GUST 30 TO 45 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
- THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SET UP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH EASTERN ND WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEAST AND BE ACROSS FAR
NORTHEASTERN SD AND MN BY 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN TUESDAY MORNING. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN
THIS EXITING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS, RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WARMER
AIR. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD,
RANGING FROM -13C OVER WEST CENTRAL MN -6C OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. BY
00Z WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FROM -3C OVER WEST CENTRAL
MN TO +8C ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S WILL BE 5-10F HIGHER THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCE TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE LIMITED, GIVEN THE RECENT 0.5-1+ INCHES OF LIQUID OVER
THE PAST WEEK STILL RESULTING IN DAMP SOILS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
FALL INTO THE 45 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE, HIGHEST BETWEEN THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND JAMES RIVER.
THE MAIN 995MB SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN MT BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.
A SECONDARY LOW WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP NEAR THE BLACK HILLS BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. AS THE MAIN LOW CROSSES SOUTHERN MANITOBA THE SECONDARY
LOW ON THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS SD AND RESIDE OVER EAST
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN SD BY 12Z WEDNESDAY, AND SLIDE INTO MN BY
15Z WHILE GETTING MERGING WITH THE 999MB PARENT LOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. THIS WILL BRING A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 12. THE POTENTIAL FOR
0.10" OR MORE PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN TO AROUND 25% NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 12 (DOWN FROM 24 HOURS AGO).
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN GUST 30 TO 45 MPH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. HOWEVER, THE TIME OF
STRONG WINDS LOOKS LIMITED COMPARED TO TUESDAY. DESPITE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO WORK IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WEDNESDAY WILL FALL INTO THE 25
TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE
FORECAST WAS ORIGINALLY CLOSER TO THE 25TH PERCENTILE. GIVEN THE
INCREASED WINDS AND LACK OF SNOW BY THAT TIME, A HIGHER PERCENTAGE
SEEMED MORE REASONABLE. WE'LL SEE HOW THAT WORKS OUT IN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS THURSDAY, WITH A 30%
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW, AS A 500MB WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE MAIN
TROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S THURSDAY, WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
LEAN TO RAIN THAN SNOW.
OTHERWISE FOR FRIDAY, THE 20% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION STAYS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVING IN FROM
MT/WY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY, AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BRIEFLY
DEVELOPED AT PIR/ABR AND HAVE INCLUDED 1-2 HOURS WITH A TEMPO MVFR
CEILING THERE. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN,
INCREASING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY OUT OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND
REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...06
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