707
FXUS63 KABR 071845
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
145 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY,
SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTS OF
30 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED, STRONGEST OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY.
- THERE IS A 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING
MAINLY NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 12. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.
- THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY, WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WARMEST SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
AT 18Z, THE NEARING LOW WAS SET UP FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH MT AND WI INTO EASTERN CO. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE GUST OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 30-45 MPH, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL SD AS THE SURFACE TROUGH NEARS
AND CREATES A LOW NEAR THE BLACK HILLS/WESTERN SD BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.
WINDS OVER EASTERN SD WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. THE NORTHERN LOW WILL
CROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ND OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE SOUTHERN LOW SHIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN SD TO NEAR THE
SD/NE/MN/IA BORDER BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN BY 15Z
BEFORE MERGING BACK NORTH INTO THE MAIN CANADIAN LOW. THERE IS A 2-4
HOUR WINDOW WHERE LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE (30-50% CHANCE) MAINLY NEAR
THE ND/SD BORDER.
ASSISTED BY COLD AIR ADVECTION, WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST BY 09Z OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD AND MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z, AND BECOME MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 15Z AND INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. EFI
HIGHLIGHTS CORSON AND DEWEY COUNTIES FOR WIND GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH,
WHICH MAY EXPAND TO THE LEOLA HILLS OF NORTH CENTRAL SD. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
SD.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE FOR JONES AND LYMAN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 20-30 PERCENT. RECENT RAINFALL OF AROUND 0.5-0.75" MAY
STILL HAVE SOME SOILS REMAINING DAMP. THERE IS ALSO SOME GREEN
COMPONENT SHOWING UP IN THE SHORT GRASSES OVER EASTERN LYMAN COUNTY
BASED ON AREA WEBCAMS. THE HOT DRY WINDY INDEX, WHICH TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT VAPOR PRESSURE DEFICIT, KEEPS THE MAXIMUM DAILY VALUE BELOW
THE 90TH PERCENTILE. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN
BE IN THE HIGH CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
THE COOL CANADIAN HIGH WILL SETTLE IN THURSDAY MORNING, AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 40S (OR AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS).
THERE IS AROUND A 40% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY, WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO
SLIDE IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WARMEST
DAY WILL BE SUNDAY. WHILE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE IN THE FORECAST, 80S
MAY BE JUST AS LIKELY. SO, STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THIS
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY (AROUND A 50% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION).
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR CEILINGS AT PIR WHICH SHOULD EXIT EAST
PRIOR TO 18Z. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL GUST 25-38KTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AT ATY. MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR
CEILINGS WILL MOVE ACROSS ABR/ATY FROM 05Z TUESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST 14Z. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT ABR AND MBG, WHILE LEAST
LIKELY AND LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT PIR AND ATY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ003-015.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ004-005-
009-010.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...06
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