313
FXUS63 KABR 091337 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
837 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 40 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
TODAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA, WITH LESS THAN 0.15IN OF
WATER EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AND LESS THAN 1.5IN OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY BEFORE
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, WARMEST SUNDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO RELAX A BIT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ON SUNDAY MAY GET
CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 830 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES FORTHCOMING TO THE TODAY PERIOD FORECAST.
MAINLY JUST ADDED VALUE TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE FOR TIMING, COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE THE MID-LEVEL WAA ZONE LIGHTING UP WITH
SOME PRELIMINARY LIGHT SNOW PRODUCTION ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. INITIALLY, THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF
HOURS DELAY TO ALLOW FOR THE SATURATING DOWN OF THE COLUMN. BUT,
THERE SHOULD BE SOME OBSERVABLE LIGHT SNOW IN THE AIR WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT PLACES LIKE LITTLE EAGLE AND MOBRIDGE.
THE LATEST RAP13 CROSS-SECTION DEPICTS DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
BANDED-SNOW FORMATION INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND
UVV/LIFT, AND EMBEDDED "COLD AIR INSTABILITY" (-EPV*). WILL SEE
HOW MANY TIMES THE SNOWFALL FORECAST (CURRENTLY 0.5IN TO 1.5IN)
HAS TO BE AMENDED TODAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
AS OF 1 AM CDT, WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
COLD FRONT KEEPS MOVING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AT
THE MOMENT ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AT THE
SURFACE TODAY AND DO BATTLE WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTHWEST, RESULTING IN SOME SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS. ACCUMULATION OF
LESS THAN A HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED AROUND AND NORTH OF US HWY 12
AND WILL MELT QUICKLY.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY BEFORE WE MOVE INTO PRETTY MUCH CONSTANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WAA
SHOWERS START SATURDAY AND STAY MAINLY OVER EASTERN SD WITH THE
CHANCE OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE AT 15% OR LESS, HIGHEST OVER
FAR EAST CENTRAL SD. HIGH PRESSURE BATTLING WITH INCOMING LOW
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES
OF 20-30% SPREAD BACK EAST SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE AND LAST THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BIT OF A BREAK FOR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND MOVES IN
MONDAY MORNING WITH 45-60% CHANCES LASTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS OF RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER,
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF THE LEOLA HILLS. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING, PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED SNOW AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE NORTH OF I-90, NOW TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH
THAT RAIN HAS BECOME THE DOMINANT PTYPE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MODELS START TO SHOW
ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO MN ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
ONCE AGAIN MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE MVFR STRATUS NEAR KABR AND
KATY WELL THIS MORNING. TRIED TO TIME IT OUT BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN LATER, TOO, AS A SHORTWAVE BRINGS SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN TO THE REGION AFTER 14Z.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20
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