955
FXUS63 KABR 091857
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
157 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY BEFORE
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, WARMEST SUNDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO RELAX A BIT FRIDAY. SATURDAY
WILL BE WINDY, BUT NOT OVERLY DRY. SUNDAY COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC, THOUGH, IF TEMPERATURES REACH THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL AND WESTERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH
PERSIST ALL AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
AT 1 PM CDT, TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES ARE
OVERCAST. LIGHT SNOW THAT STARTED TO DEVELOP EARLIER THIS MORNING
OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA HAS CONTINUED TO SPREAD/DEVELOP EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL KEEP
WINDS RATHER LIGHT. THE ONGOING BANDED SNOW EVENT SHOULD BE EXITING
THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST ZONES THIS EVENING. IF SNOWFALL
COULD BE ACCURATELY MEASURED FOR THIS EVENT (WARM TEMPERATURES
COMPACTING AND MELTING WET SNOW AS IT FALLS/ACCUMULATES), MOST AREAS
THAT RECEIVE SNOW ARE LOOKING AT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION. BUT, DUE TO THE BANDED NATURE OF THIS ONGOING EVENT,
SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...2-3IN). THEN,
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ENSUE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. ALOFT, A REX BLOCK PATTERN IS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST,
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE'S INFLUENCE CONTINUING TO SPELL A PERIOD OF
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THIS REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THIS CWA
START BACK UP AGAIN SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, AT THE EARLIEST, AS THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
PORTION OF THIS WEST COAST REX BLOCK START WORKING BACK INTO THE
MEAN FLOW, HEADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL STEERING
WINDS OVER THIS CWA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT ON
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER CIRCULATION OPENING UP AND
LIFTING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY, MODELS DEPICT A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORK OVER THE
DAKOTAS BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BUT, MODEL CONSENSUS RIGHT NOW IS FOR
LONGWAVE TROUGHINESS TO MAINTAIN MORE INFLUENCE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS THAN LONGWAVE RIDGING CAN, WHICH POTENTIALLY PLACES THIS
REGION IN MORE OF A WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY (POTENTIALLY CONTINUED
ACTIVE?) FLOW PATTERN ALOFT HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
THE ENSEMBLE-SUPPORTED POTENTIAL WARM-UP IN STORE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY STILL SHOWS UP IN GUIDANCE TODAY, INCLUDING A 55 TO 95
PERCENT CHANCE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY WILL WARM TO 80
DEGREES OR WARMER. THERE ARE EVEN A FEW POCKETS OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES REACHING 90 DEGREES ON SUNDAY. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE THOUGH, IN EARLY/MID SPRING, THE POTENTIAL FOR
CLOUDY (STRATUS OR OTHERWISE) CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND HAMPER THE
WARM-UP WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. IF HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY DO IN FACT END UP PANNING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, SEVERAL
LOCATIONS COULD TIE/BREAK THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
THERE IS SNOW FALLING CURRENTLY AT KMBG. THAT HAS FLIGHT CAT
BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR IN FALLING SNOW. KABR/KATY HAVE
JUST LIFTED OUT OF MVFR, JOINING KPIR IN VFR FLYING WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE FALLING SNOW WILL BE REACHING KABR
WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS, AND KATY PROBABLY BETWEEN 20Z-21Z.
WHEN IT DOES, THESE TERMINALS WILL BE EXPERIENCING (IFR VISBY IN
SNOW) CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THOSE CURRENTLY AT KMBG. KMBG/KABR
AND KATY SHOULD BE GRADUALLY RETURNING TO A VFR FLT CAT BETWEEN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE THIS EVENING, ONCE THE FALLING SNOW
ENDS. KPIR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
IT APPEARS AS THOUGH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY.
BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOT FORECAST TO DROP OFF
MUCH PAST 35 TO 45 PERCENT. SUNDAY IS A BIT MORE TROUBLESOME, AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR BOTH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND GUST CRITERIA TO BE
MET IS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. KEEPING AND EYE ON SUNDAY FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...10
FIRE WEATHER...10
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