506
FXUS63 KABR 101843
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
143 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AROUND A 25 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
HEADING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER THE GLACIAL
LAKES REGION, WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL. 20- 30% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
(ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE).
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW
80S (15 TO 25 ABOVE NORMAL). WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INCREASES TO HIGH/VERY
HIGH CATEGORY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES OFF AND ON
FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
AT 1 PM CDT, SKIES ARE SUNNY, AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH
THE 40S INTO THE 50S. WINDS HAVE SETTLED IN FROM THE SOUTH GENERALLY
AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS; LIGHTEST
WINDS OVER TOWARD THE SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER WHILE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, LOW LEVEL JET SOUTHERLIES ARE GOING TO
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE INTO THE BLOSSOMING OF AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS
OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE LOW CLOUD FIELD MAY END UP SETTLING DOWN ALONG/NEAR THE ABR AND
UNR CWA BORDERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS MOISTURE SURGE IS
HAPPENING, THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH AROUND TO
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY, LEAVING THE CWA UNDER SOME FORM OF
WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES DEPICT A "WAVE TRAIN" PATTERN DEVELOPING BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SO, PLENTY OF
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE 7-DAY. AS EXPECTED, THERE IS
NOT AN ENSEMBLE-POWERED 12-HOUR POP BLOCK THAT DOESN'T HAVE
MEASURABLE POPS IN IT BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT
NOW, IT SEEMS THE MODELS IMPLY MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES
ABOUT ONCE EVERY 36 TO 48 HOURS, STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. OVER THESE
FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST, MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE CURRENTLY STILL
LATCHING ON TO SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY LATE MORNING MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM REDFIELD TO
SISSETON. BEYOND THAT, ENSEMBLES AND CAMS ARE BASICALLY DRY FOR THE
REST OF SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE CLOUDS (BE THEY STRATUS OR OTHERWISE) THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WILL SOMEWHAT HAMPER THE WARM-UP BEING
ADVERTISED FOR SATURDAY. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON
SUNDAY, LOW CLOUDS OVER THE CWA ARE EXPECTED TO END, AND EFFICIENT
MIXING WESTERLY PBL WINDS SHOULD AIDE SUNSHINE TO PRODUCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S, TO PERHAPS 80S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. KPIR MAY END
UP BEING THE ONLY TERMINAL TO REMAIN VFR TO THE END OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD ON SATURDAY. IT'S REALLY JUST GOING TO DEPEND ON
WHERE/WHEN THE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS SATURDAY MORNING. KABR/KATY
(AND POSSIBLY KMBG) SHOULD BE UNDER THESE LOW CLOUDS BY 18Z
SATURDAY AND ARE TO REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL BE GRADUALLY GAINING STRENGTH, FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION,
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND ALL OF TONIGHT. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY TO RAMP UP TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS. ALSO, MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z SATURDAY,
THERE ARE SOME LOW PROBABILITY CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE KATY TERMINAL; COVERED FOR THE TIME BEING WITH A COUPLE
OF PROB30 GROUPS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
MONITORING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND, DUE TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON SATURDAY
AND WESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON SUNDAY.
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL HELP TO KEEP THE GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER INDEX FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND, BUT ALONG/WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY, ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS MAY
HAPPEN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE IN THE DAY. SIMILARLY, ON
SUNDAY, A DRYING/WARMING WESTERLY COMPONENT WIND (NOT AS STRONG
AS SATURDAY), INCLUDING FREQUENT GUSTS 25-30MPH, IN TANDEM WITH
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY POTENTIALLY FALLING TO 20-25
PERCENT WILL PLACE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN FIRE WEATHER ZONES
RATHER CLOSE TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS. ALSO, IN BETWEEN POTENTIAL
ROUNDS OF RAIN THIS UPCOMING WEEK, THERE ARE A FEW DAYS WHERE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD FALL TO OR BELOW 25 PERCENT. SO, AN EYE
IS BEING KEPT ON THAT, AS WELL.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...10
FIRE WEATHER...10
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page