754
FXUS63 KABR 251737 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1237 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO 50S THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UPWARDS OF 1" OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED EAST OF A LINE FROM EUREKA TO PRESHO THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST TOTALS, PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 1.5"-2",
WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS BELOW
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1011 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
CURRENT RADAR INDICATES A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
EXTENDING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MILLER THROUGH WHEATON ON
THE BACKSIDE OF A COLD FRONT, WITHIN AN AREA OF STRONGER
925-850MB SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED FGEN AND EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF STRONGER 700MB FGEN OVER CENTRAL SD. ITS UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SASKATCHEWAN. CAMS
INDICATE RAIN CONTINUING OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE MIDDAY WITH
HRRR INDICATING ANOTHER BAND OR BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND OVER THIS SAME AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING. PRECIP IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA BY THE
LATE EVENING OR SO. ADDITIONAL MEAN PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO POTENTIALLY A HALF INCH ALONG AND
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CLARK TO ORTONVILLE WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER EAST CENTRAL SD. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE CWA WILL
REMAIN OVERALL DRY WITH SATELLITE INDICATING CLEARING SKIES OVER
NORTH CENTRAL SD. HIGHS WILL BE COOL TODAY RANGING IN THE 40S AND
50S. OTHER THEN UPDATING THE POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING, THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
RAIN IS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT THIS MORNING, JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AS WELL AS WESTERN MINNESOTA, BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
JUST AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT, UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA (AROUND AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
WATERTOWN AREA), WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO HALF AN INCH
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS DECREASE MOVING NORTHEAST, WITH LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED NORTHWEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM ABERDEEN
TO GETTYSBURG. A HANDFUL OF FLASHES OF LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED
VIA SATELLITE IN SOME OF THE RAIN FURTHER SOUTH IN NEBRASKA EARLY
THIS MORNING IN AN AREA OF VERY MARGINAL (<250 J/KG) MUCAPE. THIS
MUCAPE IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY, BUT MAY BRIEFLY SNEAK INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA, PRODUCING AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO. EITHER
WAY, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A
COLORADO LOW, BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS (ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW). NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA IS STILL EXPECTED TO SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS
FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE GEFS DOES PLACE THE TRACK OF THE STORM A BIT
FURTHER EAST, WITH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION BLEEDING OUT OF
THE ABERDEEN CWA. HOWEVER, OTHER ENSEMBLES KEEP THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TOTALS SOLIDLY WITHIN THE CWA, AND HAVE RETAINED A BIT MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY (THEREBY SOMEWHAT INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THOSE SOLUTIONS). AS FOR HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL, LATEST ENSEMBLE
MEDIAN TOTALS GENERALLY CONTINUE TO SHOW UPWARDS OF 1" THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (WITH THE LATEST
NBM GIVING A 50-80% CHANCE TO REACH 1" OVER THIS SAME AREA).
HOWEVER, A SLIGHT UPTICK IN TOTALS HAVE HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, NOW WITH A GREATER AREA WITH MEDIANS OVER 1.5". STILL A FAIR
DEGREE OF SPREAD, AS NBM 25TH/75TH PERCENTILES CONTINUE TO SHOW
BETWEEN 0.75"AND 1" OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO. THE HIGHEST
UNCERTAINTY IS LOCATED IN THE NORTH BETWEEN ABERDEEN AND MOBRIDGE,
AND LIKELY HAS A LOT TO DO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SYSTEM TRACK AS
WELL AS UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAINFALL TOTALS THEMSELVES. A FINAL NOTE
ON THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR WINTER
PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHEN THE NEAR-SURFACE
LAYER DROPS NEAR TO JUST BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER, IMPACTS FROM
WINTER PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXPECTED.
MONDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES TO THE EAST, A
NORTHERLY-LOW-LEVEL JET ON THE BACK SIDE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVERHEAD. THAT SAME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOW TRACK MENTIONED IN THE
ABOVE PARAGRAPH IS UNSURPRISINGLY ALSO PRESENT FOR WHERE THIS LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL SET UP. GENERALLY EXPECTING IT TO SET UP OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, ALTHOUGH IF THE GEFS IS TO BE
BELIEVED THE MAIN THREAT AREA MAY IN FACT BE ALONG THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. REGARDLESS OF LOCATION, EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL REACH 40-50 KNOTS AT 850MB, AND SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME CHANCES
TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. STILL, THINGS LOOK MARGINAL AT THIS POINT TO
REACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS, WITH THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES UNDER
THE JET REACHING JUST 20-40%.
MID-WEEK, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS STILL SHOW CONFIDENCE IN AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WITH THE BASE OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COLD
AIR ALOFT ALLOWED INTO THE REGION BY THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO
REGULATE TEMPERATURES, KEEPING THE NORTHERN PLAINS 5-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. THIS SETUP IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE VERY CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION, AND LITTLE IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SD, MAINLY
BETWEEN KMBG AND KPIR TAF SITES AS WELL AS OVER NORTHEASTERN
SD/WESTERN MN AFFECTING KATY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT KATY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER ON
TONIGHT. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN NORTHWARD INTO KPIR
LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN SPREADING NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON (BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD) ACROSS THE REGION WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE AT KATY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...MMM
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