575
FXUS63 KABR 271855
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
155 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES, ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
50S THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE CWA
THIS EVENING, LEAVING BEHIND DRY, BUT COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD SOME TONIGHT, ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE, CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA, WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY MOVING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY
12Z TUESDAY. VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA, STANLEY, JONES, LYMAN AREA MAINLY AFTER
18Z. THE CHANCE OF PCPN IS 30 TO 60 PERCENT. THE 12Z HREF
PROBABILITY OF SEEING 0.01 INCHES OF QPF IS 20 TO 50 PERCENT, WITH
THE HIGHEST PROB OVER JONES COUNTY. BY 0Z WEDNESDAY, THE NBM HAS A
BROAD AREA OF 20 POPS, WHILE SOME CAMS SUGGESTS MOSTLY SPRINKLES
EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A 25 TO 45 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND. THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
SUGGEST AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS, AND THE RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
A STORM SYSTEM IS PRODUCING IFR CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS. DRIER
AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHERLY WINDS
WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25-30 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS
EVENING AS WELL.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SD
AVIATION...SD
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