435
FXUS63 KABR 280529 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1229 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO 50S THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
PULLING AWAY, WHILE SKY IS SLOWLY CLEARING AS WELL. CURRENT
FORECAST SKY GRIDS ALREADY HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE DECREASING
CLOUDS TREND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
SEE WINDS SUBSIDE, ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK. LOOKING AT A RATHER
CHILLY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY WHEREVER SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THE
LONGEST. DUE TO SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER TRENDS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, NO CHANGES TO FORECAST
LOWS, WHICH ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MOST AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE CWA
THIS EVENING, LEAVING BEHIND DRY, BUT COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD SOME TONIGHT, ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE, CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA, WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY MOVING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY
12Z TUESDAY. VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA, STANLEY, JONES, LYMAN AREA MAINLY AFTER
18Z. THE CHANCE OF PCPN IS 30 TO 60 PERCENT. THE 12Z HREF
PROBABILITY OF SEEING 0.01 INCHES OF QPF IS 20 TO 50 PERCENT, WITH
THE HIGHEST PROB OVER JONES COUNTY. BY 0Z WEDNESDAY, THE NBM HAS A
BROAD AREA OF 20 POPS, WHILE SOME CAMS SUGGESTS MOSTLY SPRINKLES
EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A 25 TO 45 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND. THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
SUGGEST AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS, AND THE RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
KPIR COMES THE CLOSEST TO SUB-VFR (CIGS) CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
WHEN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WORKING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF
KPIR, SO DISCONTINUED THE PROB30 MENTION AT KPIR FOR NOW.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...SD
AVIATION...10
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