609
FXUS63 KABR 290619
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
119 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TODAY (20-40%) AND THURSDAY
(15-30%). THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. WEEKEND HIGHS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY INTO THE 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 118 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS THIS MORNING UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTH. WHILE GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT, CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. MAIN AREA THAT WOULD SEE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AROUND 12Z. AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
VISIBILITIES, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY AREAS OF VISIBILITY
BELOW 3 MILES AT TIMES. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WHEN WINDS PICK UP SLIGHTLY.
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SIT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, LEADING TO SOME CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON UNDER
VERY SIMILAR SETUPS BOTH DAYS. JET STREAKS ALOFT RIDING DOWN INTO
THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT (ABOVE THE 700-600MB
SATURATED LAYER) THAT MAY LIMIT THE GROWTH OF THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPING SHOWERS. HOWEVER THE MARGINAL MUCAPE (<250 J/KG BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A TOUCH GREATER TODAY) WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER EITHER DAY.
WHILE THE TROUGH IS PRESENT OVERHEAD, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND, THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST AND SIT OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS, BUT HEIGHT RISES (UP TO ROUGHLY 560-564 DAM AT 500MB)
WILL SIT NEAR MEDIAN VALUES FOR EARLY MAY. NATURALLY, THIS
TRANSLATES TO NEAR-NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THIS BROAD PATTERN LOOKS SET TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WHERE THE RETURN OF SOME JET STREAK SUPPORTED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
REGION (MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA) FROM
ROUGHLY MID-DAY TODAY THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, SO PROB30S HAVE
BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE KPIR AND KMBG TAFS. PERHAPS A FEW BRIEF
DROPS TO MVFR VSBY IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS, BUT OVERALL
THINKING VFR VSBYS, EVEN IN SHOWER ACTIVITY, SHOULD SUFFICE
LATER TODAY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10
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