968
FXUS63 KABR 291726
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TODAY (20-40%) AND
THURSDAY (15-30%). THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. WEEKEND HIGHS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO THE 60S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 904 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN
ND, MOVING TO OUR AREA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN
REPORTED FROM THESE HIGHER BASED SHOWERS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS, AND MAY NEED TO INCREASE THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN LATE
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 118 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS THIS MORNING UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTH. WHILE GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT, CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. MAIN AREA THAT WOULD SEE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AROUND 12Z. AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
VISIBILITIES, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY AREAS OF VISIBILITY
BELOW 3 MILES AT TIMES. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WHEN WINDS PICK UP SLIGHTLY.
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SIT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, LEADING TO SOME CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON UNDER
VERY SIMILAR SETUPS BOTH DAYS. JET STREAKS ALOFT RIDING DOWN INTO
THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT (ABOVE THE 700-600MB
SATURATED LAYER) THAT MAY LIMIT THE GROWTH OF THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPING SHOWERS. HOWEVER THE MARGINAL MUCAPE (<250 J/KG BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A TOUCH GREATER TODAY) WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER EITHER DAY.
WHILE THE TROUGH IS PRESENT OVERHEAD, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND, THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST AND SIT OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS, BUT HEIGHT RISES (UP TO ROUGHLY 560-564 DAM AT 500MB)
WILL SIT NEAR MEDIAN VALUES FOR EARLY MAY. NATURALLY, THIS
TRANSLATES TO NEAR-NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THIS BROAD PATTERN LOOKS SET TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WHERE THE RETURN OF SOME JET STREAK SUPPORTED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPORARY AND PROB30 GROUPS HAVE MAINLY BEEN SET UP TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE SPOTTY PRECIPITATION. THERE ARE ALREADY THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE ABR SITE BY 1715Z. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SMALL
HAIL (GS) AND CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45 MPH WITHIN
THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE CELLS, IN ADDITION TO BRIEF VSBY DROPS
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...06
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