356
FXUS63 KABR 301834
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
134 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER
NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH THIS EVENING. LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED, WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UNDER
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS POTENTIALLY SEEING ABOVE A TENTH OF AN INCH.
- LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS FRIDAY, AND AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
- WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL GUST NEAR 30-40MPH, STRONGEST OVER
NORTHERN SD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
SHOWERS REMAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MOBRIDGE TO EUREKA AND
ELLENDALE. WHILE O LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED YET, THE CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BECOME AGITATED, PARTICULARLY NORTHEAST
OF ABERDEEN. LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ARE EXITING EARLY
THIS MORNING. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, MRMS ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT
MOST AREA RECEIVED LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH, WITH LOCALIZED
AREAS SEEING AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS ARE
IN PLACE FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TODAY, (DISCUSSED FURTHER IN
THE PARAGRAPH BELOW) AS MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. AS SHOWERS CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BRIEFLY EXTEND INFLUENCE INTO THE REGION
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A WEAK LOW THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME MINOR
SIGNAL FOR SOME FOG THIS MORNING IN MODEL GUIDANCE, MAINLY LOCATED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING NEAR-FULL RH RECOVERY
THIS MORNING OVER THAT AREA, SO WIND WILL LIKELY BE THE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. AT THE MOMENT EXPECTING
WINDS TO STAY JUST HIGH ENOUGH (5-10 MILES PER HOUR) TO DISPERSE ANY
DEVELOPING FOG. HOWEVER, SHOULD A LULL IN WINDS MANIFEST, SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
A VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO YESTERDAY'S IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS A
JET STREAK IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ONCE
AGAIN PROVIDE LIFT OVER THE AREA AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO WILL AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CAPPING
INVERSION IN THE 600-500MB LAYER WILL LIMIT THE GROWTH OF THESE
SHOWERS, BUT THE UPDRAFT IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. MUCAPE IS HIGHEST OVER
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA, LEADING TO THAT
AREA HAVING THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE LIGHTNING IN THE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S) CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE TROUGH SITTING OVERHEAD. BY THE
WEEKEND, THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST AND GIVE ROUGHLY 10
DAM OF HEIGHT RISE OVER FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
NORMAL TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
HIGHS REACHING UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. BEYOND TODAY'S
SHOWERS, LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BARRING SOME POTENTIAL LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. VCSH HAVE BEEN COMMON AT
MOST OF THE AIRPORTS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEING AT
ATY AFTER 1930Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ATY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS, BUT WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
BECOME AGITATED NORTHEAST OF ABERDEEN, THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...06
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