538
FXUS63 KABR 201725 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1225 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOISTURE CHANCES INCREASE TO 60-70% ON FRIDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH AND A NEGLIGIBLE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS.
- TURNING WARMER LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK, ABOUT 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 839 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
THE FREEZE/FROST HEADLINES EXPIRED BACK AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR.
TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A DEVELOPING
SOUTH BREEZE, SHOULD WARM INTO, AT LEAST, THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100+KTS UPPER JET STREAK
WILL BE LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. WHEN
COMBINED WITH FORECAST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5-8C/KM
THIS UPPER FORCING FEATURE MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS UP INTO THE MURDO/PIERRE AREA
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MOST RECENT
HREF AND CURRENT RAP/HRRR OUTPUT SUPPORTS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THAT AREA. POPS ARE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO TWEAK IT
LATER ON FOR COVERAGE/TIMING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
NOT MUCH OVERALL GOING ON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS MORNINGS
FROST WHILE STILL ONGOING IS ONLY FOR THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF
THE FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND A PAIR OF
SYSTEMS FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TODAY, WITH RETURN (SOUTHERLY) FLOW ACROSS
THE STATE. THE GRADIENT IS ABOUT 8-12MB ACROSS THE STATE, SO A
BREEZY (GUSTS 20 TO 35 MPH) PAIR OF DAYS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OF
NOTE LIFTS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE HEADED UP ALONG
THE MN/SD STATE LINE EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW MID-DAY FRIDAY.
THE SECOND WAVE TAKES A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT DISTANCE BETWEEN WAVES MEANS A MAINLY
CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION MAINLY EAST RIVER. PROFILES ARE MOIST
ADIABATIC/NO INSTABILITY WITH SOME SHEAR, SO MOSTLY JUST RAIN. NBM
MEAN IS BETWEEN 1/4 TO 1/3 FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY TO AROUND 1/2
INCH IN THE WATERTOWN AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS, WITH ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS SUNDAY/MONDAY. THATS FOLLOWED BY
A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, ALL OF WHICH END UP
PUMPING WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL
ARE A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE CLIMO, AND AS SUCH SUN-TUES
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NBM
DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO ON THE RISE WITH BROAD/WEAK AND SOMETIMES
INTERMITTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THROUGH THE GULF AND ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A COUPLE SHOWERS OF RAIN MAY PASS OVER KPIR TERMINAL AIRSPACE
THIS AFTERNOON, BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN VFR.
THE CHANCES OF THIS HAPPENING AT KPIR, EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE
CURRENTLY A COUPLE SHOWERS ~50-60 MILES AWAY, ARE PRETTY SLIM,
SO JUST CARRYING A LATE AFTERNOON PROB30 GROUP FOR THIS
POTENTIAL.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...10
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