627
FXUS63 KABR 231721 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1221 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER END OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
PERSISTENTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 80S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS REACHING
OR EXCEEDING THE 90F DEGREE MARK (15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
POCKETS OF FOG ARE BURNING OFF AND CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MIX
OUT. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH CLOUD-COVER ENDS UP
REFORMING WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO PLANS
TO CHANGE ANYTHING IN THE TODAY PERIOD FORECAST. GOING GRIDDED
DATABASE APPEARS TO HAVE THINGS HANDLED PRETTY WELL AT THIS
TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEAST OUT OF SD TODAY, A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF SD INTO ND. AS THIS SURFACE LOW
MOVES NORTH, VERY SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES OVER
NORTHEASTERN SD WILL ALSO BE MOVING OUT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, THE CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL START TO
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING TO CLEARER SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOWER CLOUDS AS WELL AS THE LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE SHOWERS
THAT OCCURRED FRIDAY HAVE STARTED TO CAUSE SOME POCKETS OF FOG TO
DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHEASTERN SD. THESE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING FOR A LITTLE BIT AND ALSO DEVELOP OVER
AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL SD. VISIBILITY COULD GET DOWN TO A MILE, WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOWER VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE.
AS A LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SD DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY
SCATTERED AND LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POPPING UP OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN SD. THE MODELS VARY THE CHANCES FOR RAIN QUITE A LOT,
WITH THE HIGH-RES MODELS PICKING UP ON IT BETTER. THOUGH SOME MODELS
HAVE MORE ISOLATED SPRINKLES AND OTHERS HAVE HIGHER/SLIGHTLY MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES. I BLENDED IN A COUPLE OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO HELP GET SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES. OTHER THAN THE SLIM SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT, THE REST
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY, AS RAIN CHANCES STAY TO THE
SOUTH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE/SPLIT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO MOVE
TOWARDS AND OVER SD DURING THE WEEKEND AND STICK AROUND INTO THE
WORK WEEK. THIS FLOW WILL HELP TO PUSH WARMER AIR INTO SD, WARMING
TEMPERATURES STARTING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL, AND MODELS SHOWING THAT SOME AREAS ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING TO
GET CLOSE (POTENTIALLY WITHIN 5 DEGREES SOME PLACES) TO RECORD WARM
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES THEN ARE FORECAST TO START COOLING
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
EXPECT GOOD VFR TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...10
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