767
FXUS63 KABR 081827
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
127 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
SISSETON TO HURON. MAIN THREATS INCLUDE HAIL, QUARTER INCH IN
DIAMETER, AND 60 MPH WINDS.
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAIN THREATS INCLUDE TORNADOES, LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL (2+ INCHES IN DIAMETER) AND WIND GUSTS OF 70+ MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND QUICKLY
WEAKEN IN WEST CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. THEY ARE ALL FORMING ON
THE WARM SIDE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH THAT IS DRAPED
FROM MILBANK TO MITCHELL. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
IN THIS AREA WITH INCREASING SHEAR AFTER 21Z. 1 INCH HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS.
ALL ATTENTION IS REALLY FOCUSED ON THE IMPENDING SEVERE WEATHER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. THE SFC FRONT WILL BE AIDED BY
AMPLE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY EJECTING OUT OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE ROCKIES WITH AN INCREASING JET IN THE EVENING. THERE IS AN
ENHANCED RISK (3 OF 5) OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH ALL
HAZARDS POSSIBLE, INCLUDING AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE SD/ND BORDER. HOWEVER, THE SET UP SEEMS MOST FAVORABLE FOR
A LINE OR MCS WITH VERY STRONG WINDS OVER 70 MPH.
TEMPERATURES COOL MARKEDLY BEHIND TUESDAY'S SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL
CLEAR ON TUESDAY FOR STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL SD BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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