499
FXUS63 KABR 090550 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM SISSETON TO HURON. MAIN THREATS INCLUDE HAIL,
QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER, AND 60 MPH WINDS.
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAIN THREATS INCLUDE
TORNADOES, LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL (2+ INCHES IN DIAMETER)
AND WIND GUSTS OF 70+ MPH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
FINALLY GOT A CELL TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE
THE REMAINS OF THIS SURFACE TROF/WIND-SHIFT IS LOCATED ALONG THE
FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW MORE CELLS
DEVELOPING LATER, CLOSER TO 06-07Z, ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF SODAK INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHEN SOME WEAK
LOW/MID-LEVEL WAA AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL SET-UP.
OTHERWISE, EXPECTING THE GOING FORECAST OF DRY THE REST OF
TONIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY AND TREMENDOUS LOW LEVEL
WARMING OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS WILL PERSIST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND QUICKLY
WEAKEN IN WEST CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. THEY ARE ALL FORMING ON
THE WARM SIDE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH THAT IS DRAPED
FROM MILBANK TO MITCHELL. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
IN THIS AREA WITH INCREASING SHEAR AFTER 21Z. 1 INCH HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS.
ALL ATTENTION IS REALLY FOCUSED ON THE IMPENDING SEVERE WEATHER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. THE SFC FRONT WILL BE AIDED BY
AMPLE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY EJECTING OUT OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE ROCKIES WITH AN INCREASING JET IN THE EVENING. THERE IS AN
ENHANCED RISK (3 OF 5) OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH ALL
HAZARDS POSSIBLE, INCLUDING AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE SD/ND BORDER. HOWEVER, THE SET UP SEEMS MOST FAVORABLE FOR
A LINE OR MCS WITH VERY STRONG WINDS OVER 70 MPH.
TEMPERATURES COOL MARKEDLY BEHIND TUESDAY'S SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
THERE STILL REMAINS POCKETS TO BKN/OVC HIGH END MVFR/LOW END
VFR CIGS AT KABR/KATY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON OBS FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THESE NORTHEAST SD
TERMINALS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS WELL. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE, DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...VIPOND
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...VIPOND
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