279
FXUS63 KABR 091914
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
214 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN THREATS INCLUDE WIND GUSTS OF 75+ MPH, LARGE
HAIL (2+ INCHES IN DIAMETER) AND TORNADOES (EF2+ POSSIBLE).
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
BRITTON TO BROOKINGS. HAIL, ONE INCH IN DIAMETER, AND 60 MPH GUSTS
ARE THE MAIN THREATS, ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR EAST OF THE ABERDEEN FORECAST AREA.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS BEGINNING THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S, NEAR-
NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT TODAY CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DEVELOPS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTHERN CANADA, LEADING TO A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING, AHEAD OF WHICH STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TODAY. AS FOR STORM MODE AND TIMING, CURRENT EXPECTATIONS
ARE THAT INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL FORM OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA BEFORE COALESCING INTO A LINE AS THE STORMS PASS THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND CONTINUE EAST.
WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND ASSUMING STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE AS
THEY ENTER THE ABERDEEN CWA, HAIL WILL BE A FAVORABLE THREAT. STRONG
CAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT, AND LCL-EL SHEAR OF 45+ KNOTS AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BETWEEN 7-8 C/KM WILL ALSO SUPPORT HAIL DEVELOPMENT, POTENTIALLY
UPWARDS OF 2" AT TIMES. AS STORMS PROGRESS EAST AND MORPH INTO A
QLCS, THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL SHIFT TO WIND. DCAPE VALUES WELL OVER
1000 J/KG WILL BE IN PLACE, LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR THE DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE WILL ALSO OFFER EASY ACCESS FOR GUSTS TO MIX TO
THE SURFACE. 0-6KM MEAN WIND AND EBWD BOTH AROUND 30-35 KNOTS
FURTHER SUPPORT THE WIND THREAT AS WELL. WITH SUCH A STRONG
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WINDS, WE MAY SEE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND
GUSTS (75+ MPH) THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
AS FOR THE TORNADO THREAT, THERE APPEAR TO BE A COUPLE OF THINGS
WORKING AGAINST THE POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT, BUT CAN'T QUITE RULE
THINGS OUT. CURRENTLY, THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE AS THE STORMS
COALESCE INTO A LINE JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE IS POINTING TOWARDS THE IDEA THAT ACHIEVING 0-3KM SHEAR
WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT. LCLS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY HIGH (>1000M) UNTIL AROUND SUNSET, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BIT
MORE OF A DISAGREEMENT WITHING THE MODELS ON THIS SPECIFIC POINT.
ALL THIS TO SAY THAT GENERALLY SPEAKING, VARIABLES DON'T SEEM TO
QUITE LINE UP WELL FOR THE TORNADO THREAT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
CAMPBELL/WALWORTH/MCPHERSON/EDMUNDS COUNTY AREA. IN THAT SPOT, SHEAR
INCREASES ALONG THE FRONT, LCLS COME DOWN BELOW 1000M, AND LOW-LEVEL
HELICITY OF 200-300 M2/S2 WILL BE PRESENT. THEREFORE, WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A SPINUP IN THAT AREA IN PARTICULAR. THE OTHER
POSSIBLE TORNADO SCENARIO (ALBEIT ONE THAT SEEMS FAIRLY UNLIKELY) IS
FOR A DISCRETE SUPERCELL TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAIN
LINE OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA,
WHERE IF TIMED CORRECTLY (AROUND 01-02Z) MAY BE ABLE TO TAP IN TO
SOME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE GIVES VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO THERE IS LIMITED
CONCERN FOR THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ALSO HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IN PLACE FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
POINT THERE IS STILL QUITE A DEGREE OF VARIABILITY IN LOCATION AND
TIMING WITHIN THE CAMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE ONE
CONSISTENT POINT SEEMS TO BE THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL DEVELOP
TO THE EAST OF THE ABERDEEN FORECAST AREA, SO LIMITED CONCERN FOR
SEVERE DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW.
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK THIS WEEK. THE MOST PROMINENT IMPACT HERE WILL BE HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE REGION, LEADING TO NEAR-NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINNING THURSDAY. THE REPLACEMENT OF THE MT
AIRMASS WITH A CP AIRMASS WILL ALSO PUSH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TODAY
TO THE UPPER 40S BY THURSDAY (ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 50TH
PERCENTILES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). BY NEXT WEEK MODEL GUIDANCE
BEGINS TO DIVERGE A BIT ON HOW THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE,
BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH AND DEVELOP SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TODAY WILL BE A LINE OF STORMS, POSSIBLY
SEVERE, TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA (WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER) LATE
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND
DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST BY AROUND 05Z THIS EVENING.
THESE STORMS WILL BRING SEVERE WINDS, PERHAPS TO 65 KNOTS OR GREATER
AT TIMES. LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE A THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS. STORMS MAY ALSO BRING MVFR CEILINGS, AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING VISIBILITY DOWN TO
MVFR TO IFR LEVELS AT TIMES. OUTSIDE OF THESE STORMS, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...BC
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