426
FXUS63 KABR 101717
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1217 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK, LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5, FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES
IN MINNESOTA. MAIN THREATS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL, ONE INCH IN DIAMETER,
AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS BEGINNING THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S, NEAR-
NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW HAS BEEN UPDATED IN ACCORDANCE WITH
THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING, AND NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE
AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN NEAR-TERM CONCERN ARE SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH
THESE SHOWERS, A HANDFUL OF LIGHTNING PULSES HAVE OCCASIONALLY
BEEN OBSERVED VIA SATELLITE, ALTHOUGH SO FAR THUNDER HAS BEEN
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED IN ANY OF THESE WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THESE SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE PROGRESSING TO THE NORTHEAST, EVENTUALLY MOVING UP INTO
NORTH DAKOTA AND OUT OF THE ABERDEEN CWA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
AS OF 2AM, THE LINE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SISSETON HILLS TRACKING EAST/NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 40 MPH.
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 70-90 MPH WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE CWA, WITH THE
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS NEAR ALTAMONT SHORTLY BEFORE 1AM. THERE WERE
ALSO SEVERAL FUNNEL CLOUD SPOTTINGS OVER PIERRE AS WELL AS WIND
DAMAGE REPORTS OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL SD. WAKE LOW PUSHING
THROUGH BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SD
AS GUSTS HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 45-55 MPH WITHIN THE POST STRATIFORM
RAIN. DUE TO THIS, ISSUED A SHORT FUSE WIND ADVISORY FOR
ROBERTS/GRANT/DEUEL THROUGH 08Z.
BY 12Z, THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE SISSETON
HILLS WITH THE NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE'S AXIS EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MT THROUGH NORTHWESTERN NE. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LOOKS TO BRING THE CHANCE OF ELEVATED SPOTTY CONVECTION OVER NORTH
CENTRAL SD INTO ND THIS MORNING WHERE IT WILL TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SD INTO WESTERN MN LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON PER CAMS. MUCH OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL
LIE EAST OF OUR CWA CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND LOW. HOWEVER, A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE OVER THE FAR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN
PER HRRR. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK, LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5,
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF BIG STONE
AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN THREATS
INCLUDE LARGE HAIL, ONE INCH IN DIAMETER, AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK FOR THIS AREA WITH CAPE BETWEEN 1000-
1500J/KG MIDDAY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING TO 500
J/KG OR LOWER BY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING STORMS WILL BE
OUT OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY MAY BRING SPOTTY
RAIN SHOWERS (POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER) OVER CENTRAL SD
OVERNIGHT WITH POPS 25% OR LESS. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
THROUGH THURSDAY A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS AND WILL TRACK ACROSS
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OUT OF COLORADO AND TRACKING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY ALOFT OVER MT/ND/SD (AND COLD FRONT) WILL
BOTH BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN (WEAK THUNDERSTORMS) OVER THE
CWA THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN, NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH, HIGHEST OVER CENTRAL SD. LUCKILY A
PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS MOVE IN THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVERALL DRY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MO RIVER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THAT COULD
SEE ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOISTURE.
COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
THE LOWER 80S WEST OF THE SISSETON HILLS (STILL COULD REACH THE MID
80S EAST OF HERE). OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S WITH MUCH COOLER HIGHS
FOR THURSDAY IN THE 70S. WARMUP FRIDAY BACK IN THE 80S AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE MUCH COOLER ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY, WITH
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS CREATING LOCALIZED
MVFR CEILINGS OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS UP TO 25 TO
35 KNOTS EXPECTED TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK OVERNIGHT, STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL REACH UP
TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AND POTENTIALLY TO 40+
KNOTS WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TOMORROW. GENERALLY EXPECTING SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT, BUT SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS MAY MOVE OVER SOME OF THE TAF SITES,
INDICATED BY PROB30 GROUPS AT THIS TIME.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...BC
DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...BC
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