020
FXUS63 KABR 110552 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1252 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK, LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5, FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS OVER BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN
MINNESOTA. MAIN THREATS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL OF ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
- STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN THURSDAY, REACHING UP TO 35
TO 45 MILES PER HOUR IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 45 MILES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS BEGINNING THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S,
NEAR-NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD FORECAST. A MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE EVENING COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT, WITH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S AND DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE
40S. SHOULD BE STARTING TO SEE SOME WAA-FORCED PRECIPITATION
FILLING IN ON RADAR, IN EARNEST, AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. LEFT EXIT
REGION OF 100+KNOT UPPER JET UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. GUIDANCE
SAYS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH THIS NEXT ROUND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE LINGERING
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING OVER
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. AS THEY MOVE
EAST, SHOWERS WILL ENTER A MOST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT (~1500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE AS COMPARED TO THE CURRENT 500-1000 J/KG), LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN PLACE OVER TRAVERSE AND BIG
STONE COUNTIES TONIGHT, WITH HAIL OF ONE INCH AND WIND GUSTS OF 60
MILES PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. THIS SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED, AS ONCE THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST (EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BEFORE 00Z),
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BACK UP, BRINGING
THE RETURN OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. COUNTIES
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR REACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA (GUSTS OF 45 MILES PER HOUR). THE LATEST NBM RUN
GIVES A 20-50% CHANCE OF REACHING THAT THRESHOLD, AND JONES/LYMAN
COUNTIES IN PARTICULAR HAVE SOME LOCAL PROBABILITIES ABOVE 50
PERCENT. HOWEVER COMPARING THE NBM TO OTHER SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES
REVEALS THAT THESE BORDERLINE ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS ARE A BIT OF
AN OUTLIER AMONG GUIDANCE. IN GENERAL, DESPITE THE TENDENCY TO UNDER-
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIMES,
CONFIDENCE WOULD LEAN AGAINST REACHING WIDESPREAD 45 MILE PER HOUR
GUSTS AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN REASON FOR THIS IS THE LACK OF MID-
LEVEL SUPPORT TO MIX THESE STRONGER GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. STILL
CAN'T QUITE RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY, BUT
WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANYTHING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURNS ON THURSDAY AS WELL, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY OVER
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH SOME MODEST MUCAPE (500-1000 J/KG)
IN THE AREA. HOWEVER, ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS
UNLIKELY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY.
BY THIS WEEKEND, FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO BECOME MORE ZONAL,
MAINTAINING THE RELATIVELY COLDER AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S, JUST
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR SOME
VORTICITY MAXIMA TO MOVE OVERHEAD BEGINNING SUNDAY, BRINGING CHANCES
FOR RAIN FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT, RAIN CHANCES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD REMAIN FAIRLY LOW, GENERALLY LESS THAN 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL DAKOTAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND
LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS ARE IN
PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THESE CHANCES. RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. PEAK GUSTS WILL TOP
OUT AROUND 30 KTS AT ALL AIRFIELDS BY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...VIPOND
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...VIPOND
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