863
FXUS63 KABR 111903
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
203 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
- STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN TODAY, WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
MPH POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA, WHERE ISOLATED GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 MILES PER HOUR MAY OCCUR.
- AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S, COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, RANGING IN LOW TO MID 70S.
THIS IS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON WIND OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON, AND
WIDESPREAD 30-40 MILE PER HOUR GUSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AS OF 18Z.
THE HIGHEST WINDS SO FAR HAVE BEEN LOCATED OVER LYMAN COUNTY, WHICH
REMAINS IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THERE MAY
STILL BE A STRAY GUST OR TWO THAT REACHES WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (45
MILES PER HOUR), BUT MID-LEVEL SUPPORT STILL APPEARS TO BE LACKING
FOR A WIDESPREAD, LONG DURATION WIND ADVISORY EVENT.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH TWO MAIN AREAS OF FOCUS CURRENTLY. SHOWERS
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, WHILE SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. WITH SOME MARGINAL MUCAPE (~500 J/KG) IN THE AREA, CAN'T
ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE
LATTER GROUP OF STORMS TRACKS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED THUS FAR WITH
THESE SHOWERS. ANY STORMS THAT REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING
WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE, AS MUCAPE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AROUND 00Z
THEREBY SHUTTING DOWN THE ALREADY WEAK CONVECTION. A FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, THE HIGHEST
OF THOSE CHANCES BEING OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR TO TODAY'S
RAIN SHOWERS, CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP FRIDAY, THE COLDER AIRMASS HELD IN PLACE BY A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING THE RETURN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
WHICH IS AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW MID-JUNE NORMALS. SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEEK, BUT AT THIS POINT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THERE
IS SOME SIGNAL FOR A WARMUP AND A RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL TO PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOW LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF WHEN THIS WARMUP WILL TAKE PLACE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON ARE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. CURRENTLY (~17Z) THERE ARE TWO MAIN GROUPS OF RAIN
SHOWERS, ONE LOCATED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE OTHER OVER
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH BOTH AREAS OF RAIN, MVFR CEILINGS
MAY BE PRESENT, AND VISIBILITY MAY DROP SLIGHTLY AS WELL
(POTENTIALLY ALSO DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS). MOVING FORWARD, THESE
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CAPTURED IN TEMPO GROUPS WHERE APPROPRIATE.
THE OTHER POTENTIAL AVIATION CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON ARE GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS LOCATED WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL OVERNIGHT, WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...BC
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