431
FXUS63 KABR 121921
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
221 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY
EAST CENTRAL SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SMALL HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AVERAGING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
- WINDS SATURDAY WILL GUST 30 AND 40 MPH, HIGHEST WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH
WEDNESDAY WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW OVER OVER CO WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING BETWEEN THE TWO. AN ADDITIONAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD LOW, WHICH WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SD
INTO SOUTHERN MN THIS EVENING, ASSISTING IN THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 09Z SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
MIXING TO AROUND 750MB IN THE AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORTING WINDS
GUSTING 25-35KTS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND SURFACE WINDS, WILL BE A BIT MORE RELAXED
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH GETS A LITTLE CLOSER AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS WY
SUNDAY WITH THE LARGE RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS, AND ACROSS OK MONDAY. WE'LL EXPERIENCE SLOWLY
INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL ROTATE A
TROUGH ACROSS ND MONDAY MORNING THAT WILL SINK ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING
CLOUDS (BOTH DAYTIME CUMULUS AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS). THERE IS ALSO
A 30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN SD/WEST
CENTRAL MN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE
FEATURE IS SUPPORTED BY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE OTHERWISE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 500MB.
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION (30-60% CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION) LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST - WITH LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE DAKOTAS. IT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A 20%
CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS OVER 45 ACROSS AND WEST OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU,
AND A 50% CHANCE MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
EXITING TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE NORMALLY AROUND 80 DEGREES.
MOST DAYS, EXCLUDING NEXT FRIDAY, WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
MAINLY AFTER 20Z, BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE AND CONFIDENCE
IS LIMITED. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE AT
ATY. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 22-30KTS AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM CANADA AND MT.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...06
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