613
FXUS63 KABR 131719
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1219 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST GUSTING 30 AND 40 MPH (HIGHEST WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER) WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY.
- THERE IS A 60% CHANCE OF WINDS WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
GUSTING GREATER THAN 45 MPH FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
DAYTIME HEATING LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL TO INCREASE THEM ABOVE A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-20%).
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
AND NORTHWESTERN MT, MAXING OUT PRESSURE WISE OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WY AND WESTERN NE ON SUNDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
NEVER BE TOO FAR AWAY, AS THE DOMINANT 500MB LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY
KEEPS A TROUGH SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT BRIEF RIDGING IN THE
OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW FOR DAY 7/SATURDAY. THE OVERALL RESULT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHILE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE, SMALL DISTURBANCES IN THE OTHERWISE BROAD TROUGH WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A HEADS-UP DAY WEATHER WISE COMPARED TO THE REST,
WITH INCREASED WINDS, CLOUD COVER, AND OUR HIGHEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. A 500MB WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW TO
OUR WEST AT 06Z WEDNESDAY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL SD AROUND 12Z AND
SHIFTING TO OUR EAST 18-21Z. THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN. AT THIS
POINT THE HIGHER LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST,
SO WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LIMITED. THE
PROBABILITY OF 45MPH OR HIGHER WIND GUSTS HAS INCREASED FOR
WEDNESDAY, UP TO AROUND 60% WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, AND AROUND
40% BETWEEN THE MISSOURI RIVER AND JAMES RIVER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH WINDS
GUSTING 20-30KTS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...06
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