481
FXUS63 KABR 281437 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
937 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS SLIGHT (2 OF 5) TO MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS
LOW FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER, ONCE WE
MOVE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. MAIN HAZARDS ARE LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH.
- WESTERN U.S. WILDFIRE SMOKE (ALOFT) WILL SPREAD OVER CENTRAL
SD THIS MORNING; POTENTIALLY STICKING AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS
WHILE THE STEERING FLOW WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
- THERE IS SLIGHT (2 OF 5) TO MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MAIN HAZARDS ARE LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCH IN DIAMETER AND
WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH. ADDITIONALLY, THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST INTO THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S. THIS WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S, WITH INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER LEFT IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT'S/EARLY
THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION. THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA MAY
EVENTUALLY RECOVER, TEMP-WISE, MAKING IT CLOSE TO FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES. FURTHER WEST, THE ONLY THING PREVENTING
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING/EXCEEDING FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
WOULD BE THE ONGOING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
PRIOR TO 00Z THIS EVENING LOOKS BOTTLED UP ACROSS PARTS OF
CORSON/DEWEY COUNTIES, AND THAT'S A STRETCH. GUIDANCE STILL
POINTS TO BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BEING LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
RAIN AND WEAK WAKE LOW WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR EAST.
CHECKING WEBCAMS THERE IS ALSO SOME FOG ACROSS JONES COUNTY AND
SPORADIC ELSEWHERE.
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATE TO THE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
ONGOING STORMS AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN SD OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE
MOVED OUT OF NORTHEASTERN SD BEFORE THE SUN RISES, HOWEVER THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS STILL AROUND
THROUGH THE MORNING.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING AGAIN
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD TODAY, AND WHILE THERE LOOKS TO BE
STRONG INSTABILITY OVER NORTHEASTERN SD, WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT,
WILL CREATE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP TO LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE
THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A CAP OVER CENTRAL SD, STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN SD AND THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL SD LATE THIS EVENING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL SD, AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE HAIL UP TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH.
LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, THERE COULD BE A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL SD. THE BIGGEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER FAR EASTERN SD AND
TO THE EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN
SD MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF
5) OVER CENTRAL SD MAINLY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN HAZARDS FOR NORTHEASTERN SD WILL BE HAIL UP TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH. ADDITIONALLY,
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AS A RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE UPPER AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND INTO THE WORK WEEK, MAINLY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD. TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL OVER
NORTHEASTERN SD, WITH AREAS EAST OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU GETTING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
POTENTIALLY GETTING INTO THE 100S. ADDITIONALLY, THE WINDS WILL ALSO
POTENTIALLY BRING IN SOME WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT
OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD AND AREAS WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BEHIND
THE STORMS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS SMOKE WILL MAINLY STAY
ALOFT AND CAUSE SOME HAZY/MILKY SKIES, THOUGH THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE BIT OF SMOKE THAT REACHES THE SURFACE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN
THE KATY AREA THAT MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL AND WILL NEED
MONITORING. STORMS LATE MAY EFFECT THE KPIR/KMBG TERMINALS, BUT
TOO LOW A CONFIDENCE FOR INCLUDING IN THIS SET OF TAFS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...07
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