613
FXUS63 KABR 300242 AAE
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
942 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. MAIN HAZARDS ARE
LARGE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH.
- WESTERN U.S. WILDFIRE SMOKE (ALOFT) WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY; POTENTIALLY LONGER DEPENDING ON HOW STEERING FLOW
WINDS EVOLVE THIS WEEK. SOME MINOR CONCENTRATIONS OF NEAR SURFACE
SMOKE COULD HAPPEN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MOST OF THIS
WEEK. WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S, AND EVEN 70S FOR SOME LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD, HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES BECOME A CONCERN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
THE LAST OF THE CONVECTIVE WATCHES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED WITH THE
CWA OUT OF THE SEVERE THREAT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 844 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCH FOR MCPHERSON ALONG WITH THE SD
COUNTIES IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. THE BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION IS ABOUT OUT OF OUR EASTERN CWA AS IT CONTINUES TO
TRACK FROM SOUTHEASTERN SD INTO MN. THE TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES
OVER NESD AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH FOR OUR MN COUNTIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 748 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCH FOR CORSON AND CAMPBELL COUNTIES AS
THE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD. THE TORNADO
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MCPHERSON COUNTY AND EASTWARD
THROUGH ROBERTS COUNTY. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 01Z AS
MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS ADVISORY ARE NOW UNDER CRITERIA, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF OUR WEST CENTRAL MN COUNTIES WITH A HEAT INDEX
AROUND 100. THIS WILL DIMINISH IN THE UPCOMING HOUR. OTHERWISE,
ISOLATED CELLS/CLUSTERS ARE FIRING UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT EAST
OF THE SISSETON HILLS WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY, WIND SHEAR,
AND LAPSE RATES LIE. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST,
SO WILL THE STORMS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR EASTERN
CWA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE THEY ARE EXPECTED GROW
UPSCALE AND MORE INTO A LINE OVER MN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS BELOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
AT 1 PM CDT, SKIES ARE SMOKY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING THROUGH THE 70S AND 80S. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE BEGINNING TO
RESPOND TO THE COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE 70S; WITH READINGS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE HEAT
ADVISORY CONTINUES. WINDS HAVE A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON,
GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY,
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST. THIS IS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR A
POTENTIAL NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
THIS EVENING.
IF CONVECTION INITIATES IN THE EASTERN PART OF THIS CWA BEFORE
PUSHING OFF INTO MINNESOTA, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND CAPE APPEARS TO ACTIVATE
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST ZONES, AS WELL, AOA 22Z TODAY. THIS
WOULD TEND TO INCREASE THE RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY STORMS
THAT FORM. HOWEVER, WITH WARM MID-LEVEL (POSSIBLY) TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN +12C AND +15C POSITIONED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY TO DEVELOP (CAPPING TOO STRONG).
THIS BOUNDARY IS MODELED TO SAG SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY
AND STALL OUT. MODEL PROGS THEN SHOW IT WORKING BACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WARM
FRONT. EXPECTING THIS COULD BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (MID-LEVEL WAA COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION, A WARM-FRONTAL ZONE OF ASCENT AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME
ENERGY ALOFT).
AFTER THAT, THE FORECAST SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
THE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND OF STORMS COULD GET GOING. CURRENT MODEL
TIMING HAS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENTERING THE REGION BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, SO BOTH OF THESE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS COULD HAVE SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEAL WITH. IT'S NOT CLEAR WHETHER AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF STORMS COULD BE PUTTING A DENT IN 4TH OF JULY PLANS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT THERE ARE POPS (~20-40%) IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT AFTER THAT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN THE
UPPER RIDGE EAST OF HERE SLOSHES BACK TO THE WEST. CLUSTER ANALYSIS
SHOWS THIS WELL. IN FACT, CLUSTERS ANALYSIS WOULD HAVE ONE BELIEVING
THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOSH BACK TO THE EAST AT SOME POINT
DURING THAT FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY. HOW WARM/UNCOMFORTABLE IT GETS
OUTSIDE IS TIED TO THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF THIS UPPER RIDGE, WHICH
IS NOT SHOWN TO BE ALL THAT STRONG JUST NOW FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. PRESENTLY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY BE THE ONLY DAYS THAT
SEE THE TEMPERATURE WARM TO 90 OR ABOVE. HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT MUCH OF A CONCERN AT THE
MOMENT.
THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SHOWS THIS SMOKE ALOFT NEVER REALLY GOING
AWAY. NOT PUTTING TOO MUCH WEIGHT ON ITS OUTPUT LATE IN THE PERIOD,
BUT IT DOES PROG BOTH NEAR SURFACE SMOKE AND SMOKE ALOFT TO CORK-
SCREW AROUND AND START INTO THIS REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST, AS WELL
AS FROM THE SOUTHWEST, BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THE CONCENTRATIONS
OF NEAR SURFACE SMOKE BEING GENERATED IN THE 12Z HRRR RUN END UP
PANNING OUT, SOME VISBY RESTRICTION AND AIR-QUALITY/HEALTH CONCERNS
MAY START POPPING UP.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE JAMES
VALLEY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE
UP, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN SD INTO MN THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
TRACKS EAST. AS OF NOW THIS ALL LOOKS TO DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST
OF KABR AND EAST OF KATY SO NO MENTION OF STORMS IN THE TAFS.
AMENDS WILL BE MADE IF NEEDED. ALSO MID LEVEL ENERGY COULD BRING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL SD FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, POSSIBLY AFFECTING KMBG, HOWEVER, NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO ADD INTO THE TAF. FOR NOW EVERYTHING IS NORTHWEST IN ND.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT KATY WHICH WILL TURN MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
BEHIND THE FROPA.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...MMM
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